Do you think there could be a second Great Depression?

[SGT Rocket]

I just added them! The Pac-Man quote must remain on top, it's currently my favorite!

 

[Gingerella72]

My main concern, and something I mentioned in the General Decline thread, is that folks today simply don't have the necessary skills to make do. I don't think we would have people running amok, but I could certainly see crime and starvation increasing.

I mean, imagine if something as simple as municipal waste slowed or stopped. Imagine if drinking water had to be rationed, not for fear of poisoning, but because the city can't pay its bill. Imagine gasoline going to $5.00 a gallon. These *aren't catastrophic circumstances, but when an iPhone app doesn't explain how to sew a hole in a shirt, or how to siphon gas, or how to purify water for drinking - what do people do?

I'm not insinuating there's going to be some crazy global nightmare (knock on wood), but living simply may be too complicated for some of the modern day softies.

You're right on the money with that one. There is a growing movement of simple living/back-to-the-landers who are desperately trying to learn "the old ways" because a time will be coming where those old skills will be needed and they will have been forgotten. We may not see it in our lifetime but I have no doubt it's a-comin'.

It's a very wise idea to start learning now, something I'm trying to do. I don't buy into a lot of the apocalyptic doom and gloom a lot of the survivalist and self-sufficiency sites preach, but I still think it's inherently necessary to try and be as self sufficient as possible. It's more frugal, environmentally friendly, plus healthier - no toxic chemicals or pesticides or GMOs in food you grow yourself and preserve, for instance. Plus, there is the confidence and pride factor when you know you can do/make something for yourself and aren't dependent on others to do it for you.

We're no where near the point that such things are a necessity, and most people wouldn't understand why anyone would want to learn them when they can just go to the store and buy whatever they need. For instance, when I explained to someone how I bought a pie pumpkin and processed it into my own puree for pies, I was given this puzzled look and asked why I would want to go to all that trouble when I can A) buy canned puree at the store, and B) just buy a premade pie at the store, because why in the world would I want to make a pie from scratch? :eeek:

Unfortunately, people of that mindset will be stuck and desperate if there ever comes a day when they *can't* just go to the store. And those of us who do have those skills will be much better prepared to face really hard times when they come.

 

[rue]

^ All I have to say to that is BINGO.

 

[kyboots]

It will take a long time for the economy to improve, especially like it did in the past. When 2/3 of the economy is consumer spending funded


by borrowing from the then inflated home values; times will be long and hard to get back to those days. Right now our banks are stable, but not so in Europe and they need to decide what to do about their debt ( of their sister countries ) just as we need to look at our total long term debt. Full employment will not be around for a long time, and unless you have a skill or an innovation, I am afraid you will be left out of the employment picture. I still believe we will mirror Japan in the 90's. Not an easy scenario, it is frightening. The US jobs number today was better, but it is Europe right now we are watching.We are all connected together.---John

 

[Gingerella72]

My favorite discussion of all time centering on socioeconomic class was with a man in his late 40s and a woman in her late 30s (old enough to have seen some of the world at large). They insisted that absolutely no one (who was legally in the United States) worked full time and made under $17,000 a year. After I showed them the math for someone who made minimum wage and worked 60 hours a week, she reassured me that nobody actually gets paid the minimum wage, as it's a "fake number." :eusa_doh:

I blame middle-upper-class suburbia which have self-contained school districts for some of this. If you go to schools and live in neighborhoods where everyone else is like you, you assume that everyone else is like you too. Income-wise, house-wise, family-wise, etc. And if they're not the same, it's because they are somehow basically different, in a way that you can't be.

If I would have been talking to that woman I would have slapped her silly. My husband, who graduated with his master's degree last December, works 36 hours a week stocking groceries and earns $7.50 an hour. They only let him work 36 hours a week because if they gave him 40 they would have to offer benefits.

Thanks to his master's degree though, he was just offered an adjunct position teaching English 101 at the college he graduated from. He'll teach only 2 classes this semester, and the total pay is $850 a month. So he'll still need to work part time at that damn grocery store in addition to teaching those two classes, but at least the two jobs combined will have him bringing home a little more than he currently is. Plus, the adjunct work will give him a foot in the door to what he really wants to do, teach at the college level. BTW, he's 44.

I've been the main breadwinner in the family all of our married life. I make a whopping $27,000 a year working as a secretary at the college. It's only slightly more than I was making 10 years ago before we moved here. Before we moved here, I made $12.00/hr at my job. When we moved here my pay dropped to $8.50/hr. Having worked at the same place now for almost 9 years, my wage has slowly increased over the years to $13.00/hr (that includes having absolutely no pay raise for the last 2 years). So wage wise I'm only one dollar an hour off better than I was 10 years ago.

We're up to our eyeballs in debt - student loans, medical bills, mortgage, car payment, and credit card debt from having to live off them when there was no money to buy groceries. We don't live lavishly in a McMansion with an SUV and cell phones/iPads. Our house was a fixer-upper built in 1935 (and when I say fixer-upper, I really do mean fixer-upper). In March we canceled our cable subscription so rely on DVDs and the internet now. We've never owned a cell phone(our land line bill is only $31/month, so why would we pay more for a cell), and our computer is 6 years old. My car is 12 years old, and hubby's is 9 years old. I haven't bought any new clothes in over a year. We haven't been on a real bonafide vacation since 2000. At best we can afford to spend a weekend out of town once a year. Point being, we're not trying live a champagne lifestyle on a beer budget. We're trying to live a beer lifestyle on a beer budget, heh. :eusa_doh:

We thought when we moved here it was going to be a better place to live with more/better job opportunities. How wrong we were. We thought when hubby went back to school to finish his degrees it would provide him the means to better employment and not grunt labor. Not these days. He's full of guilt and bitterness over having done so because it's put us further in debt and he's no better off now and has no better prospects for employment in this city with those degrees than he had 5 years ago without them. At least our mortgage payment is less than what it would cost to rent, we have that saving grace. Plus, we don't have kids so that helps.

I know things could be A LOT worse and there are people who are struggling way more than we are. We are covering all our bills, have food to eat, and no creditors are barking at the door....but there is zero left over to put aside to save. Some months we have to time paying bills verrrrry carefully so we don't bounce a payment. We are the proverbial living-paycheck-to-paycheck people who are one paycheck away from disaster if something major happened. And we can't move out of the area in search of better jobs because there are no better jobs elsewhere, let alone we'd never be able to sell our house with all the work that needs to be done to it.

Sorry for the vent, but when I read what that woman said to you Sheeplady, it made me so mad I could spit nails.

 

[sheeplady]

The big problem is, however, that a subset of the people who aren't willing to learn those skills also lack morals and ethics. If we face a big crisis, I have no doubts that anyone with a garden or water or anything of "value" that helps basic survival won't suddenly find that people are stealing from them in droves or find themselves and their safety seriously threatened.

Although stealing from people happened in the Great Depression (my grandfather was homeless from age 13 and was in a gang of other homeless kids that stole food and most notably coal from the coal yards in 'gang fights'), there were more people who had gardens and such to steal from, so that it wasn't just a few people taking the hit.

In my neighborhood, there are only two people on my block that have gardens, and the other person only has a 3x3 foot square. I've never seen a medium sized garden in this entire neighborhood besides mine. My garden wouldn't feed everyone on my block, yet alone everybody in the couple blocks around me that doesn't have a garden.

 

[V.C. Brunswick]

I still believe we will mirror Japan in the 90's. Not an easy scenario, it is frightening.

And Japan is now entering the second decade of its "Lost Decade." They've been in continuous recession ever since that time.

 

[sheeplady]

Sorry for the vent, but when I read what that woman said to you Sheeplady, it made me so mad I could spit nails.

I hope that your situation improves for your family.

What personally irritated me about it (and yeah, I almost slapped everybody) is that we live in a place where the economy is the pits. As in, there are some neighborhoods which are absolutely seething with poverty. People living in houses with plastic stapled over the broken windows, etc. Yeah, apparently these people have loads of money and they just like the plastic flapping in the wind.

What really infuriated me is that they basically called me a liar for saying that I ever worked for minimum. They basically just brushstroked over and dismissed a large portion of people's experiences in this country and told them that their concerns are not valid and called them liars. It was so dissimissive.

I basically ended that conversation with something that amounted to: You stupid idiots. I dare you to walk in x neighborhood. I dare you to actually go to a food pantry and declare your incomes. I was seeing red.

 

[V.C. Brunswick]

Over the last few years I've also been reading and hearing about the phenomenon of foreclosure ghost towns. Whole neighborhoods of mostly newer houses that have been foreclosed and now sit empty and in disrepair -- either trashed by their former owners out of spite or ransacked by scavengers looking for recyclable materials such as copper wiring. And that many of these places have become crime-ridden cesspools because the same empty houses have been taken over by gangs, druggies and prostitutes. I was wondering just how prevalent are these places?

 

[Gingerella72]

I have a coworker who is a single income family, 2 children who play every sport and activity known to man, and every weekend is an out of town trip and designer goods. Did I mention they had their cars nearly paid off, and went and bought 2 more (one of which is a very high-end luxury vehicle?) Yet all the while borrowing money for basic needs such as gas and doctor visits from their parents. There have been times this coworker has called in to work because she cannot afford the gas to get here & back. Another coworker took a hardship out of his retirement to take his kid to Disney for a week. I'm not making that up! I hear people complaining that they cannot pay a basic utility bill, or have no meat in their house - yet the next breath is talk of purchasing an expensive handbag or must-have electronic gadget, or going on a trip. I don't understand the priorities.

The entitlement and irresponsibility I see in the world today floors me. I just can't get down with the "I deserve" mentality. People are going to have a rude awakening.

I've worked with people like that before and they had a "THEY deserve" mentality. Meaning, they felt their kids deserved that kind of lifestyle and not giving it to them would deprive them and give them a complex or something. Idiots. Not teaching their kids that they can't have everything in life, and not teaching them to live with the word NO is going to give the kids a complex when they have to learn the hard way, fast.

 

[jamespowers]

The big problem is, however, that a subset of the people who aren't willing to learn those skills also lack morals and ethics. If we face a big crisis, I have no doubts that anyone with a garden or water or anything of "value" that helps basic survival won't suddenly find that people are stealing from them in droves or find themselves and their safety seriously threatened.

That is why today, as in the Depression era, we have fences and invest in ammunition.

 

[kyboots]

And Japan is now entering the second decade of its "Lost Decade." They've been in continuous rece
ssion ever since that time.

I hope we are both wrong about this prediction and I am sure there are many reasons to support other outcomes, but we all need better growth to move forward. Japan had already borrowed too much money before the earthquake to get them out of the 90's, and now after this most recent disaster they are limited in options. Europe and the US both have debt problems as we discussed. Between Europe, Japan, and the USA, a big chunk of The Western Civilization has too much debt, and now we find ourselves needing to grow out of a recession. The only way we can grow is with oil; so we will owe even more to the oil producing countries. It seems we should be looking to other forms of energy for our growth such as natural gas, and I am confused why we are not all pushing this like crazy. Is this not something our governments should be doing??--John

 

[jamespowers]

I hope we are both wrong about this prediction and I am sure there are many reasons to support other outcomes, but we all need better growth to move forward. Japan had already borrowed too much money before the earthquake to get them out of the 90's, and now after this most recent disaster they are limited in options. Europe and the US both have debt problems as we discussed. Between Europe, Japan, and the USA, a big chunk of The Western Civilization has too much debt, and now we find ourselves needing to grow out of a recession. The only way we can grow is with oil; so we will owe even more to the oil producing countries. It seems we should be looking to other forms of energy for our growth such as natural gas, and I am confused why we are not all pushing this like crazy. Is this not something our governments should be doing??--John

Or we could just drill for oil from our own sources here and tell them where to go.

 

[kyboots]

Or we could just drill for oil from our own sources here and tell them where to go.

Oh! do I wish we would do this!! However it does not look to me like drilling in the continental US, Alaska, off shore or anywhere will ever happen! Despite being in such major need! Someone told me we have not built a refinery since the 70's; is that true? I know this is not the whole answer, but it looks like it would help so much!---John

 

[jamespowers]

Oh! do I wish we would do this!! However it does not look to me like drilling in the continental US, Alaska, off shore or anywhere will ever happen! Despite being in such major need! Someone told me we have not built a refinery since the 70's; is that true? I know this is not the whole answer, but it looks like it would help so much!---John

There are a few int he works but it has taken twenty years to get approval to build them.:eusa_doh:

 

[Atticus Finch]

Yes. I fear that we live in an age of entitlement. People, especially many young people, seem to be used to expecting (and getting) everything...now.

By way of example, my girlfriend is a big fan of the TV show House Hunters. I know that it is only entertainment, but it makes me so angry that I've had to stop watching it with her. Many segments feature couples who are only in their mid twenties, and perhaps just out of college, trying to decide which house to buy among three choices...all of which cost more than $400,000! Usually, what turns their final decision is some fundamental design element like whether the house has granite counter tops and hardwood floors. What the...?!?!?!? Other than Bill Gates, what twenty-five year old, just out of school, commands that kind of income? And why didn't I think of doing what ever he or she's into?

When I got out of law school I was so poor I couldn't scrape up enough money to pay attention. I had a car with almost 300,000 miles on the odometer and some clothes that no longer fit. I rented a house that barely had a kitchen...much less granite counter tops. Now, decades later, my clothes fit a little better, but I still don't live in a house that cost $400,000. And my car still has almost 300 grand on the odometer!

AF

 

[jamespowers]

Yes. I fear that we live in an age of entitlement. People, especially many young people, seem to be used to expecting (and getting) everything...now.

By way of example, my girlfriend is a big fan of the TV show House Hunters. I know that it is only entertainment, but it makes me so angry that I've had to stop watching it with her. Many segments feature couples who are only in their mid twenties, and perhaps just out of college, trying to decide which house to buy among three choices...all of which cost more than $400,000! Usually, what turns their final decision is some fundamental design element like whether the house has granite counter tops and hardwood floors. What the...?!?!?!? Other than Bill Gates, what twenty-five year old, just out of school, commands that kind of income? And why didn't I think of doing what ever he or she's into?

When I got out of law school I was so poor I couldn't scrape up enough money to pay attention. I had a car with almost 300,000 miles on the odometer and some clothes that no longer fit. I rented a house that barely had a kitchen...much less granite counter tops. Now, decades later, my clothes fit a little better, but I still don't live in a house that cost $400,000. And my car still has almost 300 grand on the odometer!

AF

Yes but they have tons of self esteeeeeeemmmm.

 

[sheeplady]

That is why today, as in the Depression era, we have fences and invest in ammunition.

This gist of my point is, that during the Great Depression I bet that every other house where I live had a decent garden. That meant more places to steal from and less people who had to steal because they had their own garden. The people who stole didn't have to constantly hit the same place over and over- there was a selection and there were fewer people who had to steal in the first place from neighborhoods like the one I live in because they had their own gardens at home.

I'm not trying to suggest that this happening now is at all likely, but I do think that's how it would play out.

 

[jamespowers]

This gist of my point is, that during the Great Depression I bet that every other house where I live had a decent garden. That meant more places to steal from and less people who had to steal because they had their own garden. The people who stole didn't have to constantly hit the same place over and over- there was a selection and there were fewer people who had to steal in the first place from neighborhoods like the one I live in because they had their own gardens at home.

I'm not trying to suggest that this happening now is at all likely, but I do think that's how it would play out.

It probably would happen that way---and in a populace about 1/3 as able to defend themselves as they were 75 years ago.:eusa_doh:

 

[sheeplady]

It probably would happen that way---and in a populace about 1/3 as able to defend themselves as they were 75 years ago.:eusa_doh:

Exactly. Now instead of 10 people or 30 people coming into my garden, I might have 300 or more. And given the fact that they've probably not eaten in a while because of the lack of gardens, they are going to be much more aggressive and desperate. If they don't succeed here they might not get fed at all, so the stakes are much higher for them. In fact, rather than just stealing, they might purposefully kill to take, because it is such a limited resource.

Again, I don't think that will happen, but if it did, there are going to far more people who are far more desperate.