The Next World War

[scotrace]

Just one more peep:

Everyone might find it worthwhile to seek out the April 3 issue of TIME - Global Warming cover.
The last page is an opinion piece on Iran's nuclear program by Charles Krauthammer and why it matters (Today Tehran, Tomorrow the World). I thought it was a good read.

 

[Vladimir Berkov]

We really will never have another World War like the first two. The advent of nuclear weapons, particularly the H-bomb has made such wars impossible. A total war today would be over quickly with basically no winners.

All wars now are going to be limited wars.

 

[Lena_Horne]

So then WWII really was the "War to end all wars" where WWI should have been. Thank you. That is somewhat reassuring. Though it would mean nothing if we managed to get someone in office who wouldn't even take that into account sometime in the future. I would hate my grandchildren blown up on the count of an idiot.

L_H

 

[Lincsong]

Godfather II

There is a scene where Hyman Roth is asked about Fidel. He comments that "there have been revolutions since I came to this island. It's in their blood". That's why there is an "anything goes" attitude towards South America. There's always someone out there ready for a coupe de tat. Hugo may be gone tomorrow or be there for 40 years like Fidel.[huh] Peron was bought off with a couple million in gold. The next War won't be out of there.

The Middle East is another story. That place is fanatical. Add in a couple nuts with nukes and we're talking a powder keg. Flying planes into buildings is nothing to them so exploding a couple nukes in a major city would be a walk in the park.:rage:

 

[Vladimir Berkov]

So then WWII really was the "War to end all wars" where WWI should have been. Thank you. That is somewhat reassuring. Though it would mean nothing if we managed to get someone in office who wouldn't even take that into account sometime in the future. I would hate my grandchildren blown up on the count of an idiot.

L_H

The fact that there won't be any more real "world" wars doesn't mean there won't be plenty of conflict, it just means the nature will have been changed. You won't have all-out total war between all major industrial powers. Instead you might have long-term limited conflict, still with great loss of life. Or particilarly ethnic or tribal warfare, as in Africa. Or religious fanaticism and terrorism as we have seen with Afghanistan.

And with nuclear, biological and chemical weapons you don't need big industrialized nations to cause lots of damage or loss of life. As you said, it only takes one idiot. Such conflicts would still probably be pretty limited. Even if you can imagine the US and UK taking on the entire Middle East such a war would be far from an actual "world war."

 

[Brad Bowers]

Yeah, a few tactical nuke strikes on a few countries, and we wouldn't have to worry about them anymore, just radiation blowing its way around the globe.

Brad

 

[Katt in Hat]

Keep 'em Fearing...As long as it works, why stop?

In other words, focus on Iran as a threat. The message is: keep the Republican Party in power ... only it can save us from Iran.

Spot on, Marc.

So much does seem to be constructed or contrived to make and keep us fearful. What I really fear is the proven ineptitude and over reaching of the Administration.

An article from Vanity Fair by Watergate reporter Carl Bernstein is linked here.
http://www.vanityfair.com/commentary/content/articles/060417roco03

 

[geo]

For a WW3 to happen, there need to be potential contestants of equal power on both sides. If the US is on one side, which other world power can be on the other side and last more than a few weeks? Russia and China are friendly for the moment, and I don't see any other countries with the power to match the US. The French have got over the fries crisis.

As for nuclear weapons, I think that they will be used, like any other weapons. There have been numerous nuclear blasts already, and nuclear demolition charges are routinely used for big construction projects, such as dams or fracturing oil formations. There are ICBM's that can destroy cities, of course, but there are also numerous more modern smaller weapons, which can be used on a limited scale. What hundreds of WW2 Flying Fortresses would do in one night over Hambourg can be done today by a single airplane.

 

[matei]

They'd lose it in Basic fast enough.

Please note that I'm not bashing the US or US Armed Forces - these are just my observations based on my personal experience.

I went in to Basic at about 165 pounds, and 6 months later was at 185. It wasn't all just muscle! I wasn't the only guy in my platoon who experienced this.

The weight gain wasn't at all what I expected. I was in better shape before I went into the Army. The food was really "rich", the PT was somewhat less than challenging, the rules kind of cushy and "pc". Granted, it wasn't easy - but it wasn't what I'd imagined.

There were quite a few people that in-processed with me that were sent home because they couldn't make the weight standards, even after a few weeks in a "fat farm" type of unit. The standards are different than the were during our grandparents times. It is less demanding.

As I said, it wasn't as hard as it was during our grandparents time. Difficult, but not impossible. Compared to my civillian life, it sucked. Night and day. Not to come off like a grumpy young man, but I just don't see today's young people ready to sacrifice their easy lifestyle to join the service.

If you are overweight when you go in, it is no longer a given that you'll slim down.

The average American in our age-group has better marksmanship and reflexes, compared to people in third world countries, too; one theory is we should be thanking videogames.

Really now? Marksmanship - perhaps, due to the freedom of owning arms... but reflexes?

That being said - I've been on NATO PfP and peacekeeping train-up missions with contingents from much poorer countries than the US. They would regularly perform just as well - if not better - than American troops in as far as basic soldiering tasks and "friendly" competitions.

Perhaps it is because they often don't have the technology to rely upon?

 

[Baron Kurtz]

but I just don't see today's young people ready to sacrifice their easy lifestyle to join the service.

Depending upon the 'recruitment' policy at the time, they might not have much of a choice ... Join up or go to prison for the duration. (If they can in fact throw objectors in prison these days. I doubt it ... in Europe, at least).

In WWIII draft circumstances, i suspect they'd rally like previous generations.

I don't know for sure, but i'd imagine there were members of the WWI generation who were saying these same things about the WWII generation: "well, if WWII happens, these kids won't be able to manage". Turns out they did just fine.

bk

 

[matei]

Hmmmm... good points. Hopefully it won't come to this. War is a terrible thing.

 

[Lena_Horne]

I read this wonderful article in Harper's Weekly sometime last year (though I can't remember what month exactly now) discussing how the military has changed over the decades and how in our father's and grandfathers generation the military was seen as a good career choice. It attracted young men from privileged backgrounds just as much as it did those less fortunate because they focused on serving the country, doing man's work as it were, distinction and honor. The whole she-bang. Whereas nowadays it has become much more of a sale's pitch. The standards are lower and the demographics have changed. Whereas seventy-percent of college age men considered or went into the military during the nineteen-fifties it is now a fraction of that number.

Oh, and I feel like being off-topic about the Roosevelt's again, being that they served with such military distinction and all.

TR Jr with his son Quentin II:

FDR Jr, FDR and Elliot:

Ah, World War II,

L_H

 

[Story]

Rather than a nuclear WWIII, you might be looking down the barrel of a different gun. Go read up on the Spanish Influenza outbreak of 1918.


U.S. Plan For Flu Pandemic Revealed
Multi-Agency Proposal Awaits Bush's Approval
By Ceci Connolly
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, April 16, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/15/AR2006041500901_pf.html

President Bush is expected to approve soon a national pandemic influenza response plan that identifies more than 300 specific tasks for federal agencies, including determining which frontline workers should be the first vaccinated and expanding Internet capacity to handle what would probably be a flood of people working from their home computers.

- fast forward to the good parts -
Alarm has risen because of the emergence of the most dangerous strain to appear in decades -- the H5N1 avian flu. It has primarily struck birds, but about 200 people worldwide have contracted the disease, and half have died. Experts project that the next pandemic -- depending on severity and countermeasures -- could kill 210,000 to 1.9 million Americans.

To keep the 1.8 million federal workers healthy and productive through a pandemic, the Bush administration would tap into its secure stash of medications, cancel large gatherings, encourage schools to close and shift air traffic controllers to the busier hubs -- probably where flu had not yet struck. Retired federal employees would be summoned back to work, and National Guard troops could be dispatched to cities facing possible "insurrection," said Jeffrey W. Runge, chief medical officer at the Department of Homeland Security.

 

[matei]

Interesting article.

When I signed up, most of the guys I was in basic with were from pretty poor backgrounds. There were three other "college guys" in our platoon. When I got to the next stage, AIT, the number increased a bit, but this might've been skewed because I was in Intel.

I still think that military service should be something all young men go through. At the risk of sounding like my grandpa, it does build character and teach responsibility. But that is just my opinion!

I read this wonderful article in Harper's Weekly sometime last year (though I can't remember what month exactly now) discussing how the military has changed over the decades and how in our father's and grandfathers generation the military was seen as a good career choice. It attracted young men from privileged backgrounds just as much as it did those less fortunate because they focused on serving the country, doing man's work as it were, distinction and honor. The whole she-bang. Whereas nowadays it has become much more of a sale's pitch. The standards are lower and the demographics have changed. Whereas seventy-percent of college age men considered or went into the military during the nineteen-fifties it is now a fraction of that number.

 

[scotrace]

...a national pandemic influenza...

Agreed. This is probably the biggest threat to our species on the horizon.
It's probably a good idea for us to make it our business, wherever we live, to find out what the local authorities are doing to prepare.

 

[Story]

Agreed. This is probably the biggest threat to our species on the horizon.
It's probably a good idea for us to make it our business, wherever we live, to find out what the local authorities are doing to prepare.

You rang?

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/stateplans.html

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/tab3.html

http://www.pandemicflu.gov <- best to start here.

 

[Baron Kurtz]

If it's anything like the spanish flu of yesteryear ... start working on reducing your immune system. Apparently only killed the people with strong immune systems - death caused by the immune system attacking the virus.

bk

 

[Viola]

Really now? Marksmanship - perhaps, due to the freedom of owning arms... but reflexes?

What I read was that there was a higher percentage familiar with rifles, but also that of the unfamiliar group, they picked up concepts including using the sights faster, and accuracy gains were quicker than in non-American groups. "Gains" might have meant they were really bad at first, I guess, but that was not my understanding.

Reflexes with techy stuff - triggers, keyboards, mice, etc. All stuff really useful these days. Sorry for the lack of clarity.

 

[Story]

If it's anything like the spanish flu of yesteryear ... start working on reducing your immune system. Apparently only killed the people with strong immune systems - death caused by the immune system attacking the virus.

bk

Now Baron, would you be looking for excuses to do laps in that bathtub full of gin?

Viola - check your PMs.

 

[Lena_Horne]

I'd hate to step on any toes by posting this, but I watched Meet the Press this morning, what with everything, and Fmr. Speaker Gingrich & Sen. Biden were on. And Gingrich said something that I'd been quietly brooding over since about Tuesday:

We've begun WWIII.

Hm. While I do believe it's a little premature to say such a thing it seems we may be well on our way if things don't cool down soon. Though there does seem to be an absence of the nation-conquering that was so prelevant the last two times...

However, returning to my original point, are we ready as a nation? Personally, I'd hate to see the draft get going and include women. With the changing times, I unfortunately don't see the Waves making a comeback (oh, but how I wish they would!) and I can only imagine how lopsided this country might feel if the gals had to get going as well.

(Thoughtful) discussion welcome,

L_H