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Yes, a 38 would be the better choice. Also, you can go up to 1979 and still get the Kersey wool, which is what you want. As Jan says, it is thick and soft, which translates into warm. There were some vintage contracts that specified Melton, which is not as soft or thick, but is still a nice wool. Melton was used after 1979. But I believe those vintage coats have tags that are marked as "Melton." In about 1973 Pembroke made both Kersey and Melton, and there may be other years as well. It gets confusing and one has to know what to look for.
Currently there are peacoats listed on Vintage Trends that are marked as Melton, but I think they are actually Kersey as the tags show them to be in the early 50s, as well as late 50s to early 60s. They may be using the terms "Melton" and "Kersey" interchangeably. Gary is the owner, I think. He can handle the coat and tell immediately what it is constructed of. Also, if you buy from them, I would ask Gary to carefully exam the coat for any moth damage. Sometimes it is not evident on a cursory examination.
Currently there are peacoats listed on Vintage Trends that are marked as Melton, but I think they are actually Kersey as the tags show them to be in the early 50s, as well as late 50s to early 60s. They may be using the terms "Melton" and "Kersey" interchangeably. Gary is the owner, I think. He can handle the coat and tell immediately what it is constructed of. Also, if you buy from them, I would ask Gary to carefully exam the coat for any moth damage. Sometimes it is not evident on a cursory examination.