How would you earn a living?

[31 Model A]

I would have played baseball for the St Louis Browns, "First in Booze, First in Shoes and Last in the American League".

It's not winning that counts, it's the enjoyment of just playing the game.

 

[LizzieMaine]

We lived well enough but publishers paid very little and our finances came nearly exclusively from paperbacks which too often meant a single digit percentage of the 25 cent cover price rather than a higher percentage of several bucks for a hardcover.

These days people expect that if you are an artistic celebrity you must be making star athlete money. That's only true in certain fields and it was really, really, rare in the past.

Publishers still pay very little, and most hardcover books published these days sell less than 2000 copies. The world is filled with writers who have to wait tables -- or manage theatres -- for a living.

 

[HudsonHawk]

Publishers still pay very little, and most hardcover books published these days sell less than 2000 copies. The world is filled with writers who have to wait tables -- or manage theatres -- for a living.

Luckily, you can easily earn $100,000/year waiting tables at the Waffle House.

 

[Shangas]

Publishers still pay very little, and most hardcover books published these days sell less than 2000 copies. The world is filled with writers who have to wait tables -- or manage theatres -- for a living.

To live off of royalties is not easy as a writer. Not unless you're PHENOMENALLY successful. As Roald Dahl said in his autobiography - a published, working writer will probably get only 10% of the retail price of a book when it sells. The other 90% goes to retailers, designers, the publisher and so-forth.

 

[LizzieMaine]

My last royalty check was $15. Woo hoo, half a tank of gas.

 

[HudsonHawk]

My last royalty check was $15. Woo hoo, half a tank of gas.

In my professional baseball career, I earned $18. If I had invested it well, I could be worth an additional $100 today.

 

[LizzieMaine]

I think, all told, I made about $2000 in royalties over the life span of the book, which means I probably earned about fifteen cents an hour over the eighteen years it took to write and research the thing.

Write a book because you've got something to say. Don't ever write a book thinking you'll make money on it.

 

[Stanley Doble]

You want to write more best sellers. I hear they make the most money.

 

[Stanley Doble]

Hi, I'm confused as your question seems to say what would a bookie do if he got a bet that balanced his book - that is the exact type of customer one would want, it just rarely happened.

Even today, in the legal Vegas sports books, they are rarely balanced based on what I've read and can intuit (they took a big hit on the Superbowl I believe because they couldn't balance their books - too much money came in late on the Seahawks).

My original post concerned gamblers who did exactly that, shopped various bookies and placed 2 bets on a single event, with the bookies who gave the best prices, creating a middle or sure thing.

Others said no way could this be true, the bookies would never allow anyone to make such an easy profit. My contention was, they would be glad to take the money and couldn't care less if any individual won his bet, provided they got their commission.

 

[MikeKardec]

a published, working writer will probably get only 10% of the retail price of a book when it sells. The other 90% goes to retailers, designers, the publisher and so-forth.

Believe me publishers don't do half of what they used to do for that 90%! Most of the middlemen are gone from the business. The use of warehouse space is blisteringly effective. Returns are much more predictable. What has changed is the expected profits on the corporate side. Truly, I have no complaints as long as they kick ass for their writers ... but most of what I see is a business that wants to turn off the phones and pretend the outside world isn't there.

Looking at it through the eyes of a child and from my Mom and Dad's stories, it was a lot more fun in the '50s and '60s. They guys who ran the paperback business had been news boys would have knifed one and other for a good corner ... they were animals for selling books and took no prisoners!

 

[DharmaBum]

11Bravo Schofield Barracks was/is good duty but you still have to soldier.
After the Army cut me loose I found a studio apartment in Honolulu's Makiki Heights and chased wahinies and waves at Kaneohe beach.
Being a surfer beach bum buck ass private is a much more enjoyable profession, but a man has to follow his own star. [angel]

Hard Soldiering and Hard Fun.......what more can one ask for! Long gone are the days when "top" would arrive to formation visibly hung-over, puffing away then proceed to smoke the entire Company on a run. I idolized those guys but they are growing extinct.

 

[MikeKardec]

Now that we know what we could or could not afford we should probably start a thread on what we'd do with our free time!

 

[Fading Fast]

My original post concerned gamblers who did exactly that, shopped various bookies and placed 2 bets on a single event, with the bookies who gave the best prices, creating a middle or sure thing.

Others said no way could this be true, the bookies would never allow anyone to make such an easy profit. My contention was, they would be glad to take the money and couldn't care less if any individual won his bet, provided they got their commission.

Got it, sorry I missed your meaning the first time - my fault.

There are a few challenges with what you are suggesting.

One is logistics. Since it was an illegal business (and many illegal ones still operate today), you had to know a bookie (or someone who worked for them) and they had to know you. Contrary to the movies, bookies did not want to go around breaking legs, they wanted to know their customer, even the ones that would break someone's leg would rather not have to. Hence, to do what you suggest means you need a network of bookies with whom you made bets regularly (they were suspicious of a new "customer" who came out of no where with a large bet).

Then, you would have to place separate bets on odds that differed meaningfully at the same time (that's the arbitrage you are suggesting; if you do it over time, i.e., place one bet on Monday and then another bet later in the week, the odds could move against you, so it would have to be two simultaneous bets). Most odds in the same town at the same time were close and even the out-of-town tilt I mentioned wasn't more than a half a point to a point or point and a half - so you need to do it many, many times for it to pay off because most of the games won't be decided by that small an amount. And, again, you'd have to have established yourself with an out-of-town bookie, which isn't simple.

And even if you could do all that , the vigorish, the "vig" or the cut the bookie takes would work against you. So, for example, it was (I am far removed from what happens today) 10% for football games. So, if you bet $100 and won, you got $100 from the bookie, but it you lost, you owed him $110. So, if you were able to get these two bets off and would win both bets if the, for example, Giants beat Philly by 3 points (you got 3.5 from the NY bookie for betting on Philly and only gave 2.5 points to the Philly bookie for betting on the Giants), you would win $200 ($100 from each bookie), but if the Giants won by 4 or more points or won by 2 or less points or lost outright, you would win $100 from one bookie, but lose $110 to the other bookie. Over time, since most games won't be decided by the exact point difference that you would need to win both bets, the vig will grind you down (you'll keep loosing $10 a lot of times).

Hence, logistically, it would be difficult to consistently get off both bets simultaneously with two bookies and, even if you did, you would probably still loose over time as the vig ground you down. (Mathematically, you would need more than 5% of the games to be decided by the exact point difference that resulted in you wining both bets - my experience tells me this does not happen 5% or more of the time, but that could easily be researched.)

To your other point - would the bookies mind. It was (and probably still is) a suspicious business (most illegal ones are). Many bookies would not take bets from just anyone and would "fire" customers if they felt there was "something quirky going on" - so that is a risk. But done quietly, I don't think a bookie would care or know, but again, your bigger challenge would be the logistics of having the network of bookies, getting off the bets simultaneously and the vig which would beat you over time.

I hope this helps.

 

[Fading Fast]

I think, all told, I made about $2000 in royalties over the life span of the book, which means I probably earned about fifteen cents an hour over the eighteen years it took to write and research the thing.

Write a book because you've got something to say. Don't ever write a book thinking you'll make money on it.

This all makes sense to me, but there are also writing careers where you write for others.

I have made decent money writing economic and financial-market analysis for companies, newsletters and websites over the years. I've also written speeches and press releases for companies. If you develop a network of customers and a solid reputation, you can make a respectable living as a writer. I only know about this in finance; I don't know if this works as well in other fields.

And I know this isn't the same personal or intellectual freedom as writing a novel. Although, the economic and market commentary I've written have been my ideas expressed my way or I wouldn't do it. Speeches and press releases are another animal altogether as you are intentionally trying to take someone else's ideas and give them professional shape and coherence (and, maybe, some style).

That said, despite how much I love writing, I quickly discovered that I could make a much better living trading and managing money and financial businesses, so writing became a side-job and not my main focus.

Again - and please let me emphasize - I have no doubt that everything said above about making a living as a writer / the publishing industry is correct, all I am talking about is the narrow, specific way I have made money writing over the last two-plus decades.

What I don't know is if I could have done something similar in the 1930s.

 

[LizzieMaine]

I've been doing the same thing for nearly thirty years now, between radio work, freelance articles, copy editing, grant writing, and other things that escape memory. Right now I have two regular, steady writing jobs alongside my real job. I don't get any particular sense of fulfillment from doing it -- truth be told, I don't even particularly enjoy the act of writing -- but even though it doesn't pay much it makes a decent supplement to my income. Everybody I know has at least two jobs or possibly three or even more, just to survive in this New Creative Economy.

The first professional writing job I ever had was writing fortune cookies, which is about as "creative" as you can get.

There were plenty of freelance writers in the thirties. The better ones made a penny a word, but sometimes you got paid as little as a quarter of a cent a word depending on how desperate you were and how broke your client was.

 

[Fading Fast]

I've been doing the same thing for nearly thirty years now, between radio work, freelance articles, copy editing, grant writing, and other things that escape memory. Right now I have two regular, steady writing jobs alongside my real job. I don't get any particular sense of fulfillment from doing it -- truth be told, I don't even particularly enjoy the act of writing -- but even though it doesn't pay much it makes a decent supplement to my income. Everybody I know has at least two jobs or possibly three or even more, just to survive in this New Creative Economy.

The first professional writing job I ever had was writing fortune cookies, which is about as "creative" as you can get.

There were plenty of freelance writers in the thirties. The better ones made a penny a word, but sometimes you got paid as little as a quarter of a cent a word depending on how desperate you were and how broke your client was.

Even with adjusting for inflation, that is a very tough way to make a living. I'll stick to finance and trading and keep writing as a side job in the 1930s just as a I do today.

 

[Stanley Doble]

I was talking about professional gamblers and "wise guys" who had the time, and inclination, to contact many bookies regularly. The opportunity to get a middle did not happen every day but it did happen. I suspect in the past it happened more often than today.

I don't want to go off topic but, do you know of a Kelly Criterion calculator that applies to stock option trading? All I can find are gambling apps.

 

[Harp]

I was talking about professional gamblers...

I don't want to go off topic but, do you know of a Kelly Criterion calculator that applies to stock option trading? All I can find are gambling apps.

I recommend Lawrence G. McMillan's seminal Options as a Strategic Investment

 

[Fading Fast]

I was talking about professional gamblers and "wise guys" who had the time, and inclination, to contact many bookies regularly. The opportunity to get a middle did not happen every day but it did happen. I suspect in the past it happened more often than today.

I don't want to go off topic but, do you know of a Kelly Criterion calculator that applies to stock option trading? All I can find are gambling apps.

Hi, to your first point, it is doable in theory, and absolutely doable in a one-off, i.e., a professional could definitely focus his energies on getting the two simultaneous bets off on this or that one game. But I think even a professional would lose out to the vig over time and, again, even a professional would find the logistics challenging.

But the fantastic thing about financial markets trading (which is a segue to your next question) is that there are arbitrage strategies that do work, although, they change over time (old ones go away, new ones appear) as they are figured out by more people. Once I discovered financial markets, I quickly lost interest in sports gambling because I had found a legitimate way to apply my analytical capabilities to future bets (or as Wall Street calls them - trades or investments) with much better odds.

There is no better gambling casino than the financial markets. It is not a zero sum game, there are many opportunities to study and make money and the vig and commissions are dramatically smaller than those in casinos or with book makers.

All that said, I am not familiar with the Kelly Criterion calculator - the options traders I've known throughout the years all run programs based off of the Black-Sholes option pricing model

 

[Harp]

There is no better gambling casino than the financial markets. It is not a zero sum game, there are many opportunities to study and make money and the vig and commissions are dramatically smaller than those in casinos or with book makers.

All that said, I am not familiar with the Kelly Criterion calculator - the options traders I've known throughout the years all run programs based off of the Black-Sholes option pricing model

Theoretical option price=pN(d1)-se-rtN(d2)
where d1=In(P/s)+(r+v2/2)t/v\t
d2=d1-v\t

Black Scholes is a far cry from a simple approach to technical analysis such as Andrews Pitchfork drawn against
Eliot Waves and Fibonacci retracement; though the abbot's Golden Mean is fascinating.