Do you think there could be a second Great Depression?

[B. F. Socaspi]

. The ecological footprint of the human race (7+ billion people) goes far beyond the capacity of renewable biosphere so we are even diminishing the resources of our own life.

There're more than enough resources to go around. It's the way we distribute these resources that creates ecological crises and broad spectrum starvation. Overpopulation doesn't have maintaining Western society's quality of life as a defining characteristic.

Not that I'm for going back to hunter-gatherer societies, but still.

 

[HungaryTom]

This post is not about the economic depression itself but I think it is linked.

There're more than enough resources to go around.

There are not enough resources - see maps on global deforestation see how many species are lost or getting endangered. The biosphere is clearly in decline - global climate change is only one of the symptoms.

Yes there might be a lotsa minerals in the litosphere but if you bring them up in the biosphere at once through pushy mining it causes pollution on the short run (think in terms of a human life). Life on the Earth survives on the long term as it happened with quite a few mass extinctions but we will be not among the survivors.

Yes there is stone age management with these resources -biological diversity for instance- converting mega-diversity areas into simple agriculture land or cities or mines - those diversities can not be renewed if they are destroyed - a secondary vegetation w. a limited range of species can re-grow there but the original setup is a result of long-term development and fine-tuning.

Starvation is a good indicator for the wisdom and setting priorities.

Western society's quality of life can not be maintained with the current technologies not even for those who are living it - again just think of cars and the need for a change there.

 

[bigshoe]

There are more then enough resources for our population. The problem is in distribution. For example take Mugabe, sitting on some of the richest farm land in the world his people starve and face an inflation rate equal to a rocket launch. His redistibution of arable land caused this problem just as all central planning fails.
If the U.N. and the world wished to do some good in Africa two simple Items are all that is needed. The first is center pivot irrigation which a way to deploy solar and wind to provide power. The second is a campaign to distibute condoms, under armed guard if needed, to combat HIV and contol population. Fighting the mullahs and priests will be the hardest task.

Being old has its advantages, I watched Jimmy Carter stand up and tell the world that we would run out of oil in 20 years. That was in 1978 At the time world cumsumption of oil was 65 million barrels a day with the U.S.(population about 225 million) using 18 million barrels. Today the U.S. uses 20 million bbls. (pop 310 million) with a world cumsumption of 80 million a day. Today the experts tell us we will run out in 30 years.

The same story was told about food we were supposed to be unable to feed a population of 5 billion yet food production has increased every year since. in 1976 Russia was an importer of grain but now is an exporter. This summer speculators drove up the price of grains and corn based on reports of flooding in the U.S. corn belt in actual fact the U.S. produced the second largest grain harvest and the third largest corn harvest in history and now prices are below the cost of production.
The greatest danger to a sane and sensible world is the old story of the constant drum beat of fear. We live in fear of global warming, fear of religious insanity that drives terrorism, fear of running out of food, fear of war and fear of rumours of war, fear of corrupt politicians, fear of world wide conspriicies who contol our lives, fear of freedom, fear of despotism. FDR got few things right but he did get that one right" the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
Not that I have any strong opions on this.
Tom

 

[H.Johnson]

Tom,

Don't forget fear of peanuts...

 

[Josephine]

I read two letters over on SurvivalBlog.com (here and here) about how if we have a recession at the same economic level of the one in the 30's, it would be much worse. It's an interesting read.

 

[warbird]

Google and YouTube -Peter Schiff- for the answer. He has called this thing correctly at every turn. We had our opportunity to head this thing off in the last election but truth and facts are a bitter pill the "Dr." prescribed and the "patient" is too sick to think clearly and act rationally.

So, depression it is, along with inflation, devalued currency and increasing intervention, including the spectre of martial law. This one ain't gonna be a "Golden Era" for anybody folks!

-dixon cannon

As much as I like Peter, and I have known him a long time nearly as long as I've known Ron Paul, he has not been all right.

He was right on a number of economic fronts including the housing market, and the coming credit card crisis,but has been wrong a lot too:

He failed to see the dollar value increase
He thought the US would suffer w/o the world economy suffering, wrong
He said oil would go nothing but up along with gold, completely missing the collapse of the commodities markets
Those are just a few examples

We will have a recession likely into 2010 before we see real movement forward, followed by a hopefully short period of stagflation. The recession will last longer than it should because of government intervention, but it will be shallower because of government intervention.

This will likely be true as long as they don't do something stupid like raise taxes on the ones who be doing the rehiring. I think we are seeing that happen now as we have learned a lot in the past decades and everyone now has the same numbers showing big tax hikes slow a booming economy and strike a major blow to a recession sending us tumbling. Coming admin has already said they will put tax raises on hold now.

 

[MEDIUMMYND]

Read an interesting statistic on Sunday cities occupy 2% of the worlds landmass and consume 75% of the worlds food.

 

[bigshoe]

The Cencus Bureau reported in 2002 that by 2020 50% of the population of the U.S. will live in some 13 major metro areas. Of course none of them will want to live under airport runway paths see a power plant or smell a dairy.
Tom

 

[Foofoogal]

I just don't understand this either. I was thinking about that the other day when traveling from Houston back to Arkansas. So much land available. Why hasn't the internet been able to change this. Why does everyone have to live on top of each other still.
-------------------------
UnAmerican I saylol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAlMYOvs5Fs&feature=related

 

[dhermann1]

Currant population trends are actually away from sprawl and towards more centralization. Population density doesn't have to be ugly. I lived in Brooklyn for 18 years. 2.5 million people in 77 square miles. Many miles of little three story brownstones. It makes for a remarkably comfortable environment. The giant skyscraper apartments in Manhattan are another story. I'm now in a 6 story building, and that's my limit (albeit across the street from a 500 acres park). Anyway, I saw a story on TV about a family in Riverside Ca, who, when the gas prices hit $4, were spending $1,000 a month on fuel. Even if you cut that in half for present prices, that's a lot of gas and a lot of driving. With good planning and design higher densities can bring all sorts of benefits. Some people really need a lot of elbow room, there's plenty of space for such folks. (I take it that includes you, right Foofoo?) But liveable environments can be more economical and healthier in general when they're snugged up a bit.

 

[Foofoogal]

http://www.vanburen.org/

Yes, it is me. What is that old saying about you can take the girl or boy out of the country but never the country out of the boy or girl.
I was born and lived in small towns most of my life. Because of circumstances I had to live in the Houston area from 1972 till this year.
I never got used to it. Freeways IMHO were invented by complete maniacs.
I went to 2 hometown Christmas parades this last week. Goofy as all get out but I was in heaven. Like I said before many people are trying to get to what I am trying to get away from. Simple life is my motto.
Now if we could only sell our home and land around Lake Conroe Texas.
fftopic: today the lending rate is supposed to drop to lowest ever.

 

[B. F. Socaspi]

The Greek sure know how to celebrate an economic crisis!

 

[Feraud]

I read two letters over on SurvivalBlog.com (here and here) about how if we have a recession at the same economic level of the one in the 30's, it would be much worse. It's an interesting read.

It is somewhat interesting but laced with a bit too much of that Survivalists brand of paranoia.

 

[HungaryTom]

Loss of trust will be the catalyst

Thinking of the Enron scandal, the failure of rating companies to correctly rate financial institutions weeks prior to their collapse and lately the Madoff scandal where again only one person was involved and nobody knew nothing - my eye!!!!!
Some 50+ bn USD lost right in front of the authorities and 'victims' - international banks; whose core mission would be the careful management of invested funds- with the previously never practiced and totally unknown http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme - peanuts!

Supervisors, rating institutions in other words the controlling mechanism doesn't work and the issue is 'resolved' each time with one scapegoat like Nick Leeson (Barings) or Madoff and on and on.

Real economy: the bailed-out car companies will be saved by the very same managers who navigated them into the pit???

***

Memorable quotes for Casino (1995)
Ace Rothstein: [Don is dismissed from the casino]
Listen, if you didn't know you're bein' scammed, you're too fuckin' dumb to keep this job. If you did know, you were in on it. Either way, you're out. Get out! Go on. Let's go.

 

[Indyfan]

If you read the history of the Great depression and what led up to it and compare it to what's happening NOW I see some striking similarities. Unfortunately, we didn't learn our lesson the first time. I sure hope I'm wrong.

 

[bigshoe]

As far as coming out of economic hard times there are some very scary comparisons. In 1937 as the second wave of depresion hit the U.S. was the largest producer of steel in the world, we were a net exporter of oil and produced some 70% of the worlds footwear and 90% of the shoemaking machinery. We were the largest producer of machine tools, the largest producer of electricity, coal, railroad track, cars and engines. The largest manufacturer of trucks and cars, one of the top three makers of cloth both cotton and woolens. All this with a 25% unemployment rate and the dollar at five to the pound. We had enough excess industrial capacity to double out put within five years.
We don't have that now neither does Europe
Tom

 

[HungaryTom]

No worries

There might be a Depression but there will be a resurrection
As long as grass grows and water runs i.e. the resources will be there – human populations have survived worse cases in the 20th century the End of the Monarchies after WW1, the end of Capitalism in 1945, the End of Communism in 1989.
Axis Power populations could recover after worst devastations (large parts of the active males lost, crippled in war, being POWs abroad, over 50 % of physical national property -buildings, infrastructure- lost and not only the virtual $$$) based on the will to rebuild, the morale of the society and a tons of work.
Need makes innovative!

The world has not suffered any of those kinds of losses in the last few months since the crash came: active population is there, production capacity is there, resources infrastructures are there, morale (???????) is there. All it takes is re-thinking and re-organization.

 

[dhermann1]

Business opportunity

Mores signs of the times: You can own the Viyella brand, if you have the cash.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...4161725/Viyella-goes-into-administration.html

 

[PADDY]

No.

Not at all - it doesn't compare at all. Overall we are far, far more affluent generally in the western world now than in the 30's.

 

[Foofoogal]

Thought this went with this thread.
Waterford Crystal is filing bankruptcy. I am stunned and saddened. 250 years and bites the dust. Pitiful.

http://www.waterford.com/region.asp

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090105/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_britain_waterford_wedgwood