Do you think there could be a second Great Depression?

[Baron Kurtz]

things are going to happen within the EU. Angela Merkel just proposed a political union for 'the core group' of countries in order to create stability (or to keep certain countries from running their own economy).

This is one of the more interesting developments in recent times. The mother of all bluffs by Merkel. I can't believe she actually favours a federalized Europe (this would be an awfully strange stance for a German leader), and I can only imagine that she's praying no-one takes her up on it. Interesting times …

bk

 

[Flicka]

I don't think much will come of it, but it is a way for Germany to flex its muscles and show what could happen unless certain MS shape up. If you're going to foot the bill, why shouldn't you get to call the shots?

I always thought the current crisis would lead to a tighter, more centralised EU. My money's still on that, but maybe not in this precise shape.

 

[jamespowers]

I always thought the current crisis would lead to a tighter, more centralised EU. My money's still on that, but maybe not in this precise shape.

I'll take that bet. If things get even a bit worse over there the EU will be history. Germany doesn't want to have to foot the bill for other countries and the people are peeved. Paul Krugman and David Mixner have said there are some bad signs on the horizon. The conclusion?:
"These are troubling times in the EU. The question is can they work out of the increasing pressure in a number of nations to return to their own individual sovereignty and become stronger through this crisis? That remains to be seen."

 

[V.C. Brunswick]

Personally I think the EU is going to eventually be spelled Dodo because it's going to go the way of one.

 

[William Stratford]

Personally I think the EU is going to eventually be spelled Dodo because it's going to go the way of one.

I sincerely hope so...

 

[lolly_loisides]

I think the other thing that we haven't discussed is that we are seeing a shift in economic power towards Asia. Partly because the relative importance of Europe seems to be shrinking under the weight of it's internal problems, but even if Europe manages it's immediate problems well, there's no mistaking the long run trend towards Asia.

 

[Flicka]

The EMU may be history, but the EU? No way. I don't think that's in anybody's interest. So even if the monitary union (of which UK, Denmark and Sweden are not part anyway) crashes, even if Greece is kicked out, the EU will survive. The alternative... I cannot even begin to imagine the costs for dismantling the Union. It'd break us for sure, and that's without taking into account the significant increased costs for non-Europe. I don't even think it's a realistic option.

 

[William Stratford]

The EMU may be history, but the EU? No way. I don't think that's in anybody's interest. So even if the monitary union (of which UK, Denmark and Sweden are not part anyway) crashes, even if Greece is kicked out, the EU will survive. The alternative... I cannot even begin to imagine the costs for dismantling the Union. It'd break us for sure, and that's without taking into account the significant increased costs for non-Europe. I don't even think it's a realistic option.

It would be not much more difficult for countries to leave the EU that it has been for countries to leave the Commonwealth.

 

[Flicka]

It would be not much more difficult for countries to leave the EU that it has been for countries to leave the Commonwealth.

For individual countries to leave or be kicked out, no. But to dismantle the EU, that would be a whole other thing, even if there was a political will to do so, which I frankly don't think there is. My opinion, of course. We'll just have to see.

 

[William Stratford]

For individual countries to leave or be kicked out, no. But to dismantle the EU, that would be a whole other thing

Not really. They just all leave - as simple for 20 as for 1.

 

[Flicka]

Not really. They just all leave - as simple for 20 as for 1.

Speaking as someone who is intimately familiar with the EU bureaucracy as well as national administration of EU legislation, I think you are underestimating the compexity of deconstructing the union. It may be many things, but simple isn't one of them.

 

[William Stratford]

Speaking as someone who is intimately familiar with the EU bureaucracy as well as national administration of EU legislation, I think you are underestimating the compexity of deconstructing the union. It may be many things, but simple isn't one of them.

Speaking as someone who has had quite his fill of the excuses for the EU, I believe that Alexander the Great was also once told something was too complex to unravel... It is no more or less difficult than we want it to be.

 

[Flicka]

Speaking as someone who has had quite his fill of the excuses for the EU, I believe that Alexander the Great was also once told something was too complex to unravel... It is no more or less difficult than we want it to be.

Personally, I think anyone wanting to dissolve EU would have a greater chance of succeeding if they took the complexity into account and planned for it, but YMMV.

Anyway, right now I get a lot of pounds, euro and dollars for my crowns so I'm getting my millinery supplies very cheaply at the moment. Better stock up before that changes.

 

[sheeplady]

I'm certainly still hoping not. I think that the job market in some areas has improved compared to 2008-2009, but there is such a back log of people and so many jobs that were lost, it's like saying it's slightly better than worse.

I really think Europe is going to figure the EU debt crisis out. It took a heck of a lot of work to make the EU happen. It's not perfect, but it is a feat of engineering to get that many countries with separate identities, cultures, and nationalities (some who don't or didn't like each other) to coordinate. To be honest, I never believed that the EU would happen because of these coordination problems and I was pleasantly surprised. To go from a divided Europe to the EU in my lifetime is amazing. It would be a shame to let that all go.

 

[Flat Foot Floey]

I don't know if I am reading it wrong but many of you actually wish for the EU to dissolve?

I am not keen on Merkel but I actually would be happy for a stabilization.[huh] Strong nations who work only for themselves and not together seems like a bad idea for me.

PS: Didn't read the last posting. Agree on Sheeplady and Flicka.

 

[William Stratford]

I don't know if I am reading it wrong but many of you actually wish for the EU to dissolve?

I do not mind its existence as such, but I mind Britain being part of it; because I recognise Freetrade/Globalisation as being largely a pox upon humanity in that it rapidly sends money and jobs overseas (or demands that costs, and thus worker rights, descend to match the far-east sweatshops and their ilk). A nation that does not favour protectionism is a foolish one which is in the process of betraying its citizens for short-term benefit.

 

[Flat Foot Floey]

Ok. But it is a problem of capitalism and globalisation in general that wasn't caused by the EU itself.

 

[William Stratford]

Ok. But it is a problem of capitalism and globalisation in general that wasn't caused by the EU itself.

Whilst it is true that the EU did not create freetrade, its nature is to promote it (whilst also intefering in the lives of sovereign nations and their citizens). We have had quite enough european intervention here in 1066, 1688 and 1939, thank you very much.

 

[Flat Foot Floey]

Haha. European intervention is how you call it? Alright

 

[sheeplady]

I do not mind its existence as such, but I mind Britain being part of it; because I recognise Freetrade/Globalisation as being largely a pox upon humanity in that it rapidly sends money and jobs overseas (or demands that costs, and thus worker rights, descend to match the far-east sweatshops and their ilk). A nation that does not favour protectionism is a foolish one which is in the process of betraying its citizens for short-term benefit.

The EU (from my perspective) has actually done it's share to prevent the shipping of jobs elsewhere and is pretty protectionist for the countries that belong. Products made from within the EU are cheaper within the EU (often by a lot) than products from outside due to tariffs and taxes. If you travel within the EU and go shopping, a much higher percentage of the everyday products are made within the EU than places like China. I couldn't go to any store in the US and find the same type of goods made by a country other than China. When I go to the EU this year, I'm packing an extra bag to bring back some kitchen goods I want that I can't find made by fair labor elsewhere.

Not to be offensive, but many of the countries in the EU are small with small populations. Banding together makes their market bigger and allows them to pool resources. I don't think a small country can compete on it's own against large countries like China, who have huge populations, no labor regulation, and are dictatorships. I know that in the U.S. we're having a tough time of it, and we're huge compared to most European countries. It used to be that developed nations could trade on their own skills, knowledge, and the fact that they were already ahead. We basically traded on the fact for 50 years that we were smarter, more educated, and had more resources. But developing nations are quickly becoming educated (they were always just as smart) and learning to use their resources to their own advantage.