When did the penny drop?

[Stearmen]

A rather fundamental question, I suppose:

At what point did the German military leadership begin to think that they had lost the War?

And what plans had they in place to do anything about it?

That was the question. The answer is, Hitler never had the unquestioning support of everybody, especially the career soldiers that made up the high command. But, he was not an easy guy to reason with. At some point, certain elements decided he had to go, and if he wouldn't step down gracefully he needed a push.

When exactly this took place is hard to say but there were 35 KNOWN assassination plots, many of them by highly placed officials with everything to lose.

So, the answer seems to be that a lot of people saw his policies from the first, as a disaster waiting to happen. But, Stalingrad is usually taken as the turning point. Whether they recongnized it at the time or not.

The majority gladly fallowed him! Admiral Doenitz was one such follower.

 

[MikeKardec]

I'm far from an expert but it seems to me that there was a point where the Nazis abandoned their highly effective tactic of attacking their neighbors in a manner that was both political and military at the same time. Certainly, creating political chaos that seemed to be going their way then quickly backing it up with rapid military domination was pretty effective. The weakness in European parliamentary systems in those days was their need to (and inability to) reorganize quickly or maintain consistent governance through a crisis. That created one of the appeals of Fascism (consistent and strong leadership) and opened the way for the really intelligent aspect of German foreign policy to do it's dirty work and prepare the way for the military. The Nazis used this same tactic effectively within Germany.

I wonder if Poland wasn't the transitional moment. The old tactic wasn't as possible (though it might have been given some patience) but the "let's split the country with the USSR who've been wanting to get back in there," idea came up. With cover from the Soviets it might have seemed possible (heck it was possible) but that might have been the moment that the Nazis stepped out of the program they'd created for themselves where they always had political cover and could motivate the pacifists to come up with excuses for not being more forceful with them.

I'm guessing that for a lot of people their individual tipping point between then and the moment they realized that the momentum in Russia had been lost. Without oil, Germany was all about momentum.

It's really strange when you see almost exactly the same issue being played out on the other side of the world. The Japanese, even more than the Germans, knew they couldn't stand up to the productive capacity of the rest of the world (primarily the USA), they knew they couldn't fight a war to a true finish, but with a sort of Destiny or Bust attitude they decided to go for it thinking that making a big show at the start would cause the rest of the world to back down ... it might have even worked if they'd all known when to stop!

 

[Stanley Doble]

I haven't looked into the matter too carefully but I believe in the case of Austria, Czechoslovakia and possibly others, the Nazis were invited in by a pro Nazi government or by a plebescite that gave them a 90%+ approval rating. Poland was the first out and out invasion, and therefore the first clear cut occasion for outsiders to interfere. In that case England issued an ultimatum at once, and when the ultimatum was ignored, declared war after one week.

In other words, before Poland there was not a clear cut provication for war.

 

[Stearmen]

I haven't looked into the matter too carefully but I believe in the case of Austria, Czechoslovakia and possibly others, the Nazis were invited in by a pro Nazi government or by a plebescite that gave them a 90%+ approval rating. Poland was the first out and out invasion, and therefore the first clear cut occasion for outsiders to interfere. In that case England issued an ultimatum at once, and when the ultimatum was ignored, declared war after one week.

In other words, before Poland there was not a clear cut provication for war.

France declared war on Germany the same day as Great Britain, September 3, 1939.

 

[Stanley Doble]

And Canada a week later. Two long years later the US was forced to join in and "win" a war that was half over.

 

[Trenchfriend]

I think, the "point of reality" in NS-Germany came in 1941, after losing their Bismarck on North-Atlantic! That was the point, luck finally went away from Germany.

I think, at these depressive point, the euphemism was broken around the military-commanding and government. Probably, they realized finally, that the military rebulding-plans failed on technology, because of outdated military strategies (looking on "Z-Plan"!).

Hitler himself wasn't that euphemistic and named his tanks "warm-weather-technology" on a meeting with General Mannerheim in Finland, if the tone-recording of this meeitng is real.

 

[Stand By]

An interesting question for a thread …

I think it's tricky to say definitively and would be different for different people.
For those who knew that Hitler's intention was always to wage war but in 1941 - but then Britain and her allies declared war in 1939, before Nazi Germany was fully prepared, I think they would have said then.
For others, it could be 1940 with the Luftwaffe being unable to take out the RAF and Britain and her allies standing undefeated - a massive fixed "aircraft carrier" permanently moored off the Nazi-held continent.
For some, the limitation of the Kriegsmarine being laid bare at the loss of the Bismarck. First the RAF hold the skies - and Brittania still ruling the waves too.
The US declaring war must surely have been the wake-up-and-smell-the-coffee moment - and Stalingrad must have sealed it for all.

I occasionally wonder (NOT sympathizing - just empathizing) how it must have felt for those seasoned German field officers who were summoned to meet their Commander-In-Chief for the first time in the later months of the war to discuss the war's direction and feeling proud to have been invited to attend as obviously some realistic input was expected and required - imagining them to be loyal, earnest, hopeful to salvage something and willing to try and give their all to stave off the dire situation and yet turn something around - and completely believing in hope that with enough will and determination, it could be done.
And then to meet Hitler who looks unhinged and is orchestrating divisions of troops on a massive map - divisions that have, in all reality, been destroyed or remain in tatters or in name only, no fighting equipment, no fuel, no troop reserves, no spare parts, no air cover to speak - and yet he makes grand wheels and sweeps with his pointer and gives orders on how to smash the invaders on both fronts or fight to the last man and surrender is not an option as total victory can be won - and will be won again, just as it was in 1939 and 1940 … and then the penny drops.
I try to imagine how it must have felt to witness a stark reality like that - to stand there and watch this revelation as a subservient and otherwise dutiful officer - and to realize that the "glorious leader" is, in fact, completely insane. How utterly crushing - and terrifying - that must have felt; that all is completely lost and there is no hope whatsoever as the nation's defences rely on the orders of a man who has gone completely mad - and total destruction of everything is coming and is inevitable.

I think that, if it was me standing there, I'd be trying to hold in a long, squeaky fart. You know - the type that says "Intense worry". It'd be a blessing if I was shot for it.

 

[Stanley Doble]

I wonder if Hitler didn't know he had made a serious blunder as soon as England declared war ten days after he invaded Poland. We know that he wanted to make peace with England and felt that if he promised to lay off the British Empire, England would give him a free hand in Europe. This was wishful thinking and stood no chance of success but it was discussed and taken seriously at the highest levels. Rudolf Hess, Deputy Fuhrer and third most powerful public official in Germany after Hitler and Goering, flew to Scotland in May 1941 to negotiate a deal on these lines with the British government. This shows how seriously they took the possibility of a negotiated peace.

Hitler may have had hopes of a negotiated peace with England as late as the end of 1941. When he invaded Russia in June, he expected that a quick victory would convince the British government to sue for peace.

The Battle of Stalingrad is considered the turning point of Nazi success although it may not have been recognized at the time. But by this time the US had come in on the Allied side, and with the Eastern campaign in a shambles it must have been apparent the jig was up by early 1943 at the latest.

By the end of the war Hitler was far gone on drugs and paranoia and his strategy changed from quick victory, to negotiated peace, to delaying the inevitable as long as possible, to dragging down the whole country with him.

 

[Stearmen]

Hitler was delusional almost to the last day, when he had his body cremated, so Eva and his body would not end up like Mussolini and his mistress! You would think, after Hitler declared war on the U.S. that some of the generals would have realized this was Hitler's third big mistake? Not finishing of the UK and the invasion of the Soviet Union being the first two. Surly, after the invasion of Southern France, and a four front war, someone must have noticed. Of course, that's how Hitler came to power, people so wanted a strong leader, they were willing to overlook all his past short comings!

 

[Stanley Doble]

I wish something could be done about the myth that the German people wanted Hitler. If you look at the record he was never elected to anything. He seized power, hijacked the government, and brutally suppressed all opposition. Yes, some people cheered heartily but the rest kept their mouth shut and their heads down - if they knew what was good for them.

 

[Trenchfriend]

But, the romanian petroleum-springs! That's the point, the economic reason of war.

NS-Germany was going to be bankrupt and needed fuel, urgent!

Hitler - Mannheimer Monologue, 1942
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8raDPASvq0

!!

 

[Stearmen]

I wish something could be done about the myth that the German people wanted Hitler. If you look at the record he was never elected to anything. He seized power, hijacked the government, and brutally suppressed all opposition. Yes, some people cheered heartily but the rest kept their mouth shut and their heads down - if they knew what was good for them.

The German people gladly fallowed him. So stop the myth that no one wanted him. He used the system to gain power, no one got a majority on their own, they had to form coalitions to lead! So, Yes, he was elected under the system that was in place, a poor system.

 

[Stanley Doble]

If the German people gladly followed him why did he need the Gestapo and concentration camps? Why did he declare martial law (which meant no more elections) after the Reichstag fire? Read a history book.

 

[Trenchfriend]

In Germany, we all know, that the normal workers in these times didn't comprehend, what they are dealing with! The normal workers in factories only saw their work and where pleased and convinced about the economical happening.
The people, who comprehend exactly, whats going on, are only department-chiefs and upwards!

But the simple workers didn't comprehend, believe me! They recognized only the good things.

And Germany wasn't "Hitler-Germany". Mainly, He just signed up the "trends". I think, it was first "SS-Germany", "Himmler-Germany."

 

[Big J]

If the German people gladly followed him why did he need the Gestapo and concentration camps? Why did he declare martial law (which meant no more elections) after the Reichstag fire? Read a history book.

Stan, I think you need to read a history book. Never heard of 'the banality of evil'?
In fact, I know that you have, because we've had this discussion before, about why the Germans allowed Hitler to rule, and why they implemented his crazy ideas.
Why are you insisting on acting like no one has ever explained this to you, and you've gone back to trying to apologize for the nazi regime and the society that gave then power?
You have to get over this strange idea you seem to have that somehow we're all misunderstand nazi Germany, and making it look worse than it was.

 

[Dan Allen]

Back in the late 50's-early 60's I was an army brat it Germany. My parents befriended a German family who had family close to Berlin. One day their grandfather rushed into the farmhouse with tears hollering that the war was over. We were told that they all ran out of the house to see the sky full of bomber contrails heading to Berlin and they knew it would soon be over. Their young son told me that it was the happiest day of his life, even though he was barely old enough to realize everything.

 

[Otter]

Not everyone loved the Nazis, the story of the White Rose Society is very poignant, there is a good Holly wood film lurking in there. There were other instances, a working class couple who leafleted their neighbourhood, the Swing Kids, most didn't end well.

 

[EstherWeis]

My grandfather lived in rural Germany, as farmers in a tiny village.
They were so far away from Everything that had to do with the Nazi regime and the war. They kept on farming and living their lives as did many in that area.
That is until the Russians " passed by". Believe me, it wasn't pretty.

It's a bit silly to say the entire German population " followed " Hitler.
Like Trenchfriend mentioned, most didn't comprehend and were busy living their life trying to feed their families in hard times.
Many Germans didn't agree, as did many people from invaded countries. Yet others played along everywhere.
For instance here in Belgium, horrible crimes against humanity were committed. This doesn't mean that the Belgian population wanted him to rule over Belgium.

Hunger is a powerful motivator. Nazi and SS were master manipulators too. It's hard for us to comprehend those people's states of minds.



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[Stanley Doble]

Stan, I think you need to read a history book. Never heard of 'the banality of evil'?
In fact, I know that you have, because we've had this discussion before, about why the Germans allowed Hitler to rule, and why they implemented his crazy ideas.
Why are you insisting on acting like no one has ever explained this to you, and you've gone back to trying to apologize for the nazi regime and the society that gave then power?
You have to get over this strange idea you seem to have that somehow we're all misunderstand nazi Germany, and making it look worse than it was.

All right. Explain to me why the American people allow their government to start wars for false reasons and commit war crimes around the world without protest?

 

[Historyteach24]

A rather fundamental question, I suppose:

At what point did the German military leadership begin to think that they had lost the War?

And what plans had they in place to do anything about it?

I think a majority of people figured they were doomed with the launch of Barbarossa