The stock market 1/22/08

[nobodyspecial]

I took a deep breath and counted to ten...

A deep breath and counted to ten to make a post that was completely unrelated to the orginal topic, sounds a bit extreme.

My elderly mother lives on social security and her savings. To the extent that the rate of inflation exceeds the after-tax return on her savings her standard of living is compromised. That is a sad, but very real situation for her and many more like her.

To the extent someone loses a job and, or has a hard time making ends meet given rising fuel and food costs, that is a very sad, but very real situation.

However, the original post, and my subsequent response, was about a sell off on wall street which is competely unrealted to the above examples. My opinion that the wall street sell off isn't worthy of the news coverage generated does not mean that I do not have sympathy for those who are facing tough times. The two are simply different topics and for the most part are unrelated to each other. You seem to want to equate the two topics and extrapolate my response to areas in which it was not intended.

 

[Miss 1929]

Sorry!

But if you read your post, you did sound a little callous. I wasn't the pnly one who thought so.
We are all guilty of typing what we think and all should be forgiving of each other's haste...

 

[nobodyspecial]

Apology accepted.

 

[pgoat]

I am far from a financial wiz. But I've been reading stuff by Leon Levy (he helped get Oppenheimer Mutual funds underway back in the 50s-60s). I always like to boil things down to their radical roots and while one can't generalize TOO much, it helps sometimes to see the big picture.

He basically states the market is driven by two basic human emotions - fear and greed. I guess that's similar to being a bull or bear, but it doesn't take a wiz to see what emotion is prevailing right now.

I would actually love to take advantage of falling prices and buy like a greedy bull right now. But it's not in the cards - we need a new computer, a new bed and I am really trying to save up and pay off my credit card (all these amazing hats tempting my greed aren't helping!!lol ). So I am not doing my bit to rebound the economy, but it's not out of fear.

 

[Diamondback]

But I really can't help but wonder how much of it is pre-election manipulation...

BINGO! Pattern of behavior for the media: always try to manipulate things to look good when their party's in power and bad on the other guy's watch. Plus the inherent "if it bleeds it leads" effect... bad news sells fishwrappers, good doesn't.

I have the feeling that there are dark times coming, but only because the presstitutes (no offense intended to Mr. Sheridan, I was once a journalist myself) will make it so.

 

[panamag8or]

The funny thing is, the market was up for the week. Why was everyone freaking out?

 

[Diamondback]

It's a phenomenon some of us call MDH: Media-Driven Hysteria. Same thing as with Welles' '38 War of the Worlds... except that one was an accident.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

The funny thing is, the market was up for the week. Why was everyone freaking out?

Things like the subprime mortgage fallout and large banks like Citibank writing off billions and getting cash "infusions" from foreign investors to keep them afloat...

 

[PrettySquareGal]

BINGO! Pattern of behavior for the media: always try to manipulate things to look good when their party's in power and bad on the other guy's watch. Plus the inherent "if it bleeds it leads" effect... bad news sells fishwrappers, good doesn't.

I have the feeling that there are dark times coming, but only because the presstitutes (no offense intended to Mr. Sheridan, I was once a journalist myself) will make it so.

Nah. The media didn't make the emergency rate cut, nor did they fabricate the "missed earnings" of major corporations.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

If I get this correctly, America is in trouble because lots of bankers lent lots of money to people who can't pay it back, then having lost billions for their shareholders they all hit the eject button with massive golden handshakes for their efforts and no penalty of any kind.
Then as it all starts to fall apart, those who shout the loudest that the market is the perfect instrument and government regulation of an economy is heresy run whimpering to the government to do something to bail them out when the going gets tough. It's like something from the Marx Bros, except it's real.....

Indeed.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

However, the original post, and my subsequent response, was about a sell off on wall street which is competely unrealted to the above examples

I asked what people thought the stock market would do that day, and you replied:

"It doesn't much matter what happens today or tomorrow or the next day. Over a period of many years these cycles balance each other out. Maintain a well diversified portfolio across distinct asset classes and let the chips fall where they may."

I perceived that as a very arrogant and dismissive response. Just some feedback you may consider; I don't care to change your mind.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

The amout of high rise condo projects in downtown Miami appears impressive. BUT, go there at night & see how many are all DARK, now thats SCARY

Solid Citizen

There, and Florida, and...

 

[PrettySquareGal]

"Analysts" and talking heads are making it worse. They decided Tuesday that this was going to be a Week of Contagion and Disaster! and that's they way they've played it, facts be damned.

They and the weather people never get it right! Farmer's Almanac is where it's at!

 

[nobodyspecial]

I asked what people thought the stock market would do that day, and you replied:

"It doesn't much matter what happens today or tomorrow or the next day. Over a period of many years these cycles balance each other out. Maintain a well diversified portfolio across distinct asset classes and let the chips fall where they may."

I perceived that as a very arrogant and dismissive response. Just some feedback you may consider; I don't care to change your mind.

Prior to making assumptions, jumping to conclusions and making derogatory personal comments, all the while patting oneself on the back for one's level of self restraint, one might consider asking for more clarification of a post. Unlike face to face conversations, web forums do not allow for facial expressions, voice inflection and the like.

I don't care to change your mind either, just my two cents.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

Prior to making assumptions, jumping to conclusions and making derogatory personal comments, all the while patting oneself on the back for one's level of self restraint

I wasn't patting myself on the back for that. I was making it clear that I sometimes have a hard time making dispassionate remarks about things which I care a great deal. That was an admission of weakness.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

Anyway, the point of the post was for stock market predictions that one day, and since it's over, I'm cool if this thread is closed.