The Recession and Layoffs Thread

[pgoat]

Amazing how many more articles on the big "R" I've seen in the last week or so in the mainstream media....

The latest say there will likely be a recession, but it will be a small bump, not a major catastrophe...not sure if this is just BS to allay fears?

In any case there was a lil rally recently - my IRA balance popped back up to almost square one, which was nice for a change....[huh]

 

[Martinis at 8]

...So what I'm wondering, in a non-partisan, non-controversialist way, is whether any posters to this board are being affected by all this yet: whether that means being actually laid off, being nervous about being laid off, feeling that an elevated title and salary put you at greater risk in a downturn, working in an increasingly fraught and nerve-wracked environment, being wired to the Dow in a way that keeps you awake nights, and so on.

No I am not affected by any of this whatsoever. I am self-employed engineer with a self-developed technical specialty that seems to be in global demand. In the event the demand collapses, by some quirk, I am prepared for that as well.

I do have a concern that OPEC may drop the US dollar as the base currency and adopt the Euro. That would probably lead to the collapse of the dollar, but even with that, I would just have my clients start paying me in Euros. 90% of my work is outside of the US.

I do not believe there is a recession, however, I do believe that individuals in the US are currently over-leveraged.

M8

 

[LocktownDog]

Well ... I was just laid off. Cutbacks throughout the casino. In fact, casinos in the area are reporting a 17.9% decrease over last year's winter season.

This was exceptionally hard on me, as I just moved into my own place after my divorce. Don't have much of a financial cushion right now.

Richard

 

[Patrick Murtha]

Well ... I was just laid off. Cutbacks throughout the casino. In fact, casinos in the area are reporting a 17.9% decrease over last year's winter season.

This was exceptionally hard on me, as I just moved into my own place after my divorce. Don't have much of a financial cushion right now.

Richard

I am very sorry to hear that. I've been through it recently -- a turndown in the commercial real estate field I was working in, leading to a kind of "self layoff" (because I was making very little commission and the compensation was all commission); followed by a five month period of underemployment from June through October 2007, accompanied by financial stress and acute depression (for which I got assistance through the county, most fortunately: a doctor, a therapist, and free meds).

Hang in there, and let us know how it goes! When I went through my summer of discontent, I stopped posting at all my boards, but in retrospect, I wish I had stayed on them. My therapist tells me it's important to keep in touch with things you like when other matters are going south, and of course he's right about that. I stopped reading, watching movies, listening to music, just when I should have made those activities a comfort.

 

[pgoat]

Yes, very sorry to hear that L Dog. Is there a chance you will be reinstated once things rebound? I can't see Vegas staying down too long.

Btw, I feel your lack of cushion pains. we just bought a nice new computer (been needing one for a while now) but that plus the holidays (plus a few impulsive custom hat and vintage clothes buys - gulp!) plus the IRS' annual raid and I am B-R-O-K-E, baby.

I am already sweating green(backs) and waiting for each payday to build that savings account back up, inch by tiny freakin' inch. I picked up a nice magazine this morning - which I normally would buy, 75% of the time. Today, it went right back on the shelf..

 

[LocktownDog]

I sent out a few resumes and made a couple of calls. Looks like I got a job as a graphic designer. Did that for 15 years, but got burnt out on the whole "sitting at a desk for 8 hours a day" thing. Luckily in times of poor economy and possible recession, companies spend a lot more money on advertising and marketing. This firm really needed an experienced eye to replace two idiots on staff.

Whew!

Richard

 

[pgoat]

So cool! - that is the type of pluck that keeps you going in these shaky days. I am glad to hear you had the goods and the chance to grab that opportunity. Good luck in the new gig.

I know what you mean about being chained to a desk....not the best, but if you make a point to get up and stretch once an hour or so, etc. it's not so bad.

 

[FStephenMasek]

It varries around the country. Housing here in California certainly has not hit bottom, as it went far beyond the historical premium over housing elsewhere. However, California benefits greatly from the boom in imports from Asia. The "rust belt" or industrial mid-west seems to be the hardest hit area.

 

[Byron]

Recession is a reality

I had an economics professor during my college days that lectured about what would happen if manufacturing jobs were moved overseas. That was in the late 60's, 40 years before the word "globalization" was ever used.

My professor's predictions became true in today's business environment. His thesis was based on the belief that one manufacuturing job produced seven additional service/support jobs. These jobs produced what he called a "ripple" that generated additional jobs (e.g. his job, medical, etc.) throughout the economy. When layoffs came the service/support jobs would eventually shrink, and if the layoffs lasted long enough, the jobs created by the ripple would be lost as well.

Today we live in a country where a majority of it's manufacturing jobs have been exported (lost) so service/support jobs should be shrinking "X 7". What is intresting is that service/support jobs (especially IT jobs) are going offshore with the manufacturing jobs. We have even reached a point in this economic cycle where jobs in medical fields (the ripple) are now being performed from overseas.

I can only imagine my economics prof is out there saying "told you so".

 

[warbird]

I had an economics professor during my college days that lectured about what would happen if manufacturing jobs were moved overseas. That was in the late 60's, 40 years before the word "globalization" was ever used.

My professor's predictions became true in today's business environment. His thesis was based on the belief that one manufacuturing job produced seven additional service/support jobs. These jobs produced what he called a "ripple" that generated additional jobs (e.g. his job, medical, etc.) throughout the economy. When layoffs came the service/support jobs would eventually shrink, and if the layoffs lasted long enough, the jobs created by the ripple would be lost as well.

Today we live in a country where a majority of it's manufacturing jobs have been exported (lost) so service/support jobs should be shrinking "X 7". What is intresting is that service/support jobs (especially IT jobs) are going offshore with the manufacturing jobs. We have even reached a point in this economic cycle where jobs in medical fields (the ripple) are now being performed from overseas.

I can only imagine my economics prof is out there saying "told you so".

And you live in Texas? Puuuuleeeeeze!

The fact is production is at its highest in history in this country. In the state of Texas alone a thousand new manufacturing facilities have been built there in the last several years, many many new companies have started up across the US, especially in the south and west. Now the problem for blue collar workers is that it takes less people to keep production high. They have to rethink training. During the last part of the 90's and early 2000's many companies did send jobs overseas, in recent years many have moved back, especially the high tech jobs. Why? Because more companies are able to get the qualified people they need now, which they couldn't just a few years ago. They also found it wasn't as efficient as previously thought. The production of things like clothing mills are gone and will never come back. Other things like automotive plants have production across the nation higher than at any time and we have more companies here now than we have had since the golden era.

There's still plenty of opportunity and many places are doing very well. The northeast and midwest have been hit hard, less population and stagnant or receeding economies. There's good reason why too. Look at Ohio and Michigan, two states hit very hard. They both have among the highest corporate and individual tax structures in the nation.

I won't debate we are in a slow down or recession, that may be true. It may even get worse as I'm not convinced lowering interest rates will get people borrowed to the hilt to borrow any more. The cost of energy and health care along with tighter constraints of borrowing have slowed things some. Some needed to be slowed, loans for one. Even there however, more people own their own home today than at any time in this nation's history, despite recent difficulties.

The dollar value is especially concerning as we are the number one investment for companies and countries the world over.. But let's also not get overdramatic. We import many goods but still have tremendous manufacturing in this country. We also are where the world turns for many other services and technology.

 

[Foofoogal]

Thought this appropriate to this discussion and quite odd really.

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/104501/The-Seven-Deadly-Sins-That-Lead-to-Debt