The Real Reason Malls Are Closing

[LizzieMaine]

What really kills a small town is when the downtown is rebirthed, not for the people who live there year round, but for the tourists who blow thru in the summer, throw their cash around on pointless trinkets and overpriced food, and then disappear for the winter. The result is a downtown that has, essentially, nothing for the year-round resident -- it becomes, in essence, an open-air mall for the visiting bourgeoisie. A theme park. A simulation of a "small town downtown" that's no more realistic than the one in Disneyland.

And this model is not sustainable. The many empty storefronts on the Main Street of my town tell the story. Nobody cares about a black-turtleneck art gallery in Maine in February.

 

[Fading Fast]

What really kills a small town is when the downtown is rebirthed, not for the people who live there year round, but for the tourists who blow thru in the summer, throw their cash around on pointless trinkets and overpriced food, and then disappear for the winter. The result is a downtown that has, essentially, nothing for the year-round resident -- it becomes, in essence, an open-air mall for the visiting bourgeoisie. A theme park. A simulation of a "small town downtown" that's no more realistic than the one in Disneyland.

And this model is not sustainable. The many empty storefronts on the Main Street of my town tell the story. Nobody cares about a black-turtleneck art gallery in Maine in February.

I assume that eventually the town can't sustain the "tourist" shops year round, they close and the tourists stop coming? Is that it or what is the "life" cycle that brings about the end game? Where is your town in that cycle?

I guess year-round tourist destinations can survive as they have much more revenue than the seasonal ones?

 

[belfastboy]

I had the good fortune to have parents that moved to the west coast from the depression era prairies. It saved me the bother and even though the economy here was resourced based for much of my working life with its attendant boom and bust I chose to stay and tough out the down times. However I am the first generation to do so as the family has emigrated over the years from Scotland to Ulster to Canada all in the pursuit of jobs.

 

[sheeplady]

I don't know if there's anything such as "year round" tourism in the true sense. There's always an off-season. Growing up in the Adirondacks the "on season" was summer. In winter there is a thriving ski and snowmobiling tourist market, but it doesn't even scratch the surface of the absolute nightmare it is in summer.... or fall (which again, is not summer).

People who are successful running touristy places account for the cyclical nature of it, often having an "off season" job(s), or they live pretty lean. For instance, tourist restaurants that are typically open 7 days a week in the summer will be open two days (or even one day) a week in winter. Grocery stores will use tents/awnings in summer to beef up their square footage temporarily.

 

[LizzieMaine]

It's hard to say what the endgame here is going to be. Right now we're facing a chronic housing shortage -- working-class people have been almost entirely priced out of the rental market, which is dominated by three individuals, all of whom seem to be riding the gentrification gravy train with Airbnb-type short-term operations for some of their holdings, and jacked-up rents for the remaining year-round apartments and houses. Many are leaving town in search of work, leaving a chronic labor shortage in their wake -- service-sector and laborer jobs go begging because when you live twenty or thirty miles out of town they can't or won't pay you enough to justify the cost of gas and vehicle maintenance to drive into town for those jobs. Our year-round population has dropped by over a thousand people --12 and a half percent -- since 1990, and the trend is continuing.

There comes a point where you drop below the critical mass required to maintain a viable community, and frankly, there isn't the will in this town to prevent that: they'll "form committees" and "do studies," but they will do absolutely bupkis. It's all about short term greed, and nobody gives a damn about what the kids will have to face in twenty or thirty years.

The result will eventually be a shell of a town -- basically an oceanside resort for the well-off retirees and the gentrifying "work from home consultant" crowd who've made their money elsewhere. And if the current trends continue they'll either have to learn to drive snowplows, fire engines, and road-repair trucks themselves, do their own plumbing and electrical work, and wipe their own senile backsides themselves, or, in the end, move someplace they haven't yet gutted and start over again.

 

[Fading Fast]

It's hard to say what the endgame here is going to be. Right now we're facing a chronic housing shortage -- working-class people have been almost entirely priced out of the rental market, which is dominated by three individuals, all of whom seem to be riding the gentrification gravy train with Airbnb-type short-term operations for some of their holdings, and jacked-up rents for the remaining year-round apartments and houses. Many are leaving town in search of work, leaving a chronic labor shortage in their wake -- service-sector and laborer jobs go begging because when you live twenty or thirty miles out of town they can't or won't pay you enough to justify the cost of gas and vehicle maintenance to drive into town for those jobs. Our year-round population has dropped by over a thousand people --12 and a half percent -- since 1990, and the trend is continuing.

There comes a point where you drop below the critical mass required to maintain a viable community, and frankly, there isn't the will in this town to prevent that: they'll "form committees" and "do studies," but they will do absolutely bupkis. It's all about short term greed, and nobody gives a damn about what the kids will have to face in twenty or thirty years.

The result will eventually be a shell of a town -- basically an oceanside resort for the well-off retirees and the gentrifying "work from home consultant" crowd who've made their money elsewhere. And if the current trends continue they'll either have to learn to drive snowplows, fire engines, and road-repair trucks themselves, do their own plumbing and electrical work, and wipe their own senile backsides themselves, or, in the end, move someplace they haven't yet gutted and start over again.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out. Most of the service / trade workers in NYC don't live in the city anymore, but to be honest, I think some of them could afford to. I say that with no malice or sarcasm - sincerely.

For example, the plumber we use (if you own a 1928 apartment, you will need a plumber) has a team of two or three under him - so not a one man shop, but not a big business - and he has told me about and shown me pictures of his house. He could easily buy my apartment for less (and sell his two nice looking cars in the driveway sitting out front).

The larger point is that one of two things will happen. The prices for the service / trade people will rise to a level that either makes it worth their while to come into your town (and its surrounding area) or the people in those areas will move out for lack of affordable "services."

As to renting, NYC city has various programs of rent control and stabilization, but it creates a two-tier market where those "lucky" enough or connected get a below market apartment, but understand, the rest of us pay more in rent (or to buy) to subsidize those. The last apartment building I rented in had about 200 apartments with about a quarter rent controlled. The landlord basically adds up what he needs to run the place, subtracts out the rent controlled rents (which were - I kid you not - 60%-80% below the market prices) and then charges a much-higher rent to the rest of us to make up the difference. And if the balance in the building is heavily tilted toward rent-controlled tenants, then the building slides into disrepair.

 

[LizzieMaine]

I think the main difference between here and the NYC metroplex is that your population far exceeds the "critical mass" necessary for viability. We don't have that to draw from here -- we're fifty to seventy-five miles away from all major population centers, with only two-lane US1 connecting us to the rest of the state. When we lose twelve and a half percent of our population in twenty years, it hurts -- NYC could easily lose more than that and still remain perfectly viable due to its connections to everywhere else. A fifty mile commute from Jersey is nothing for somebody working in The City -- but a fifty mile commute to my town, over winding two-lane poorly-maintained roads, especially in the winter, is, for most people, simply not tenable.

The survival of towns like mine requires a workforce that can afford to live in the town where they work. And increasingly, that's simply not the case anymore.

 

[NattyLud]

Gentrification is certainly an interesting topic. While demographics and the futures of towns have always been in a state of change due to local economies, trends, etc., there is something particularly disturbing about watching a community that was once the heart of everyday regular life transformed into a Disney-fied enclave for proprietors and customers alike that often are not local residents or else tied in any personal way to the area. It always seem to give the locals a sense that there is little respect or care given to their their own needs, heritage or customs, and the really sad part is that I think this is often correct.

It actually blows my mind to be in Manhattan and think that at one time middle- and lower-wage earners used to call that home, and smaller businesses were more the norm, the mom-n-pop lunch counters and such that were actually there to serve the average Joes a decent meal at a reasonable price.

 

[Fading Fast]

I think the main difference between here and the NYC metroplex is that your population far exceeds the "critical mass" necessary for viability. We don't have that to draw from here -- we're fifty to seventy-five miles away from all major population centers, with only two-lane US1 connecting us to the rest of the state. When we lose twelve and a half percent of our population in twenty years, it hurts -- NYC could easily lose more than that and still remain perfectly viable due to its connections to everywhere else. A fifty mile commute from Jersey is nothing for somebody working in The City -- but a fifty mile commute to my town, over winding two-lane poorly-maintained roads, especially in the winter, is, for most people, simply not tenable.

The survival of towns like mine requires a workforce that can afford to live in the town where they work. And increasingly, that's simply not the case anymore.

I agree with all this ⇧ .

As the tourists and retirees move away owing to lack of services, the price inflation should reverse, but whoop de do, as then you are left with still no viable economic model if there is no business / industry to support jobs. Sad to say, but towns and communities do die and, maybe, all the tourist / retirees did for your town was give it a temporary and unsustainable lifeline.

 

[belfastboy]

Spent a week in Seattle recently. With all the high tech jobs there now, Micro, Amazon etc the town is a hoppin'. Tuesday night the bars were full after work, restaurants filling up. The mid week Opera was sold out at $100-$200 per. Rents are sky rocketing. The state passed a law increasing min wage. Interesting phenom, a number of mid to high end restaurants we frequented had instituted a minimum required 20% gratuity. I think, but only speculate, this is to help their servers keep their income up as the effect of the min wage is to cut hours. The servers have petitioned the state to be exempt from this new min wage law as it is hurting their take home pay.

 

[Fading Fast]

...It actually blows my mind to be in Manhattan and think that at one time middle- and lower-wage earners used to call that home, and smaller businesses were more the norm, the mom-n-pop lunch counters and such that were actually there to serve the average Joes a decent meal at a reasonable price.

Agreed. I live in one of the most affordable parts of the city, but still there aren't many trades / service people here. That said, and as noted in my earlier post, the plumbers, electricians, contractors, etc. who do work in this city are making a lot of money and living what I think most of us would call upscaled lives. The last contractor we had do some work has a nice home in Long Island (I'd like my home to be that nice) and a nice vacation home in Florida (which is nicer than mine as I don't have a vacation home).

To be fair, the guys I'm talking about are usual the owners, but they are all two, three or four man operations where the owner still rolls up his sleeves and does plenty of the manual work. But even the "workers" on the staff are doing pretty well based on my conversations with them.

 

[Fading Fast]

Spent a week in Seattle recently. With all the high tech jobs there now, Micro, Amazon etc the town is a hoppin'. Tuesday night the bars were full after work, restaurants filling up. The mid week Opera was sold out at $100-$200 per. Rents are sky rocketing. The state passed a law increasing min wage. Interesting phenom, a number of mid to high end restaurants we frequented had instituted a minimum required 20% gratuity. I think, but only speculate, this is to help their servers keep their income up as the effect of the min wage is to cut hours. The servers have petitioned the state to be exempt from this new min wage law as it is hurting their take home pay.

All efforts to change an outcome have many ramifications. Heck, if they didn't, why not raise the minimum wage to $100 hour so we could all be rich.

Before the gunfight starts, I am not saying raising the minimum wage is right or wrong, I am saying that it has impacts beyond just giving minimum wage workers a raise and these things need to be considered too.

I'm happy to defend the point I am trying to make, that's why I'm trying to make clear what I am and am not saying. Also, the point about minimum wage as a good or bad policy is political in my mind (so I'm staying away); saying that raising it has many impacts is an economic one that I think doesn't have to be political.

 

[belfastboy]

All efforts to change an outcome have many ramifications. Heck, if they didn't, why not raise the minimum wage to $100 hour so we could all be rich.

Before the gunfight starts, I am not saying raising the minimum wage is right or wrong, I am saying that it has impacts beyond just giving minimum wage workers a raise and these things need to be considered too.

I'm happy to defend the point I am trying to make, that's why I'm trying to make clear what I am and am not saying. Also, the point about minimum wage as a good or bad policy is political in my mind (so I'm staying away); saying that raising it has many impacts is an economic one that I think doesn't have to be political.

Yes, a landmine of a subject. The city of Seattle contracted an independent study of the effects of the raise in min wage with the U of Washington. Let me just say they did not like the initial results of the study so suspended further funding as they feared the findings.

 

[belfastboy]

Gentrification is certainly an interesting topic. While demographics and the futures of towns have always been in a state of change due to local economies, trends, etc., there is something particularly disturbing about watching a community that was once the heart of everyday regular life transformed into a Disney-fied enclave for proprietors and customers alike that often are not local residents or else tied in any personal way to the area. It always seem to give the locals a sense that there is little respect or care given to their their own needs, heritage or customs, and the really sad part is that I think this is often correct.

It actually blows my mind to be in Manhattan and think that at one time middle- and lower-wage earners used to call that home, and smaller businesses were more the norm, the mom-n-pop lunch counters and such that were actually there to serve the average Joes a decent meal at a reasonable price.

Yes, it is interesting to watch the flight of non whites from San Fran as prices driven up by largely the progressives in the tech fields make it difficult for anyone but the wealthy to live there. A certain bitter irony in that.

 

[LizzieMaine]

The more I think of it, the more I think if we're going to sell our soul to the tourists and gentrifiers, we might just as well go the whole nine yards and install security checkpoints at all entries to the town. All persons entering will be required to have their credit card swiped, paying a cover charge that would go into the general municipal fund. And then again when they get tired of all the overpriced seafood and make-believe quaintness, they'd have to pay an exit charge to leave. Better yet, just install the checkpoint at the Kittery bridge, and make the whole state a theme park. We've already got "Vacationland" on the license plates, why not go for the gusto?

 

[NattyLud]

While the effects can be confusing and disheartening I believe this stuff is just human nature, so it's difficult to consciously have much of a problem with it. Such things happen because there is direct profit for property owners and local government when people come to town looking to invest. "Carpet bagging" is always vilified, but in the modern sense it generally requires the residents willful cooperation.

Even those with a genuine love of the area will find it hard to turn down Starbucks when they're offering 300% more for their lot than it was worth 5 years ago, even when they know their coffee stinks. Blue-collar families couldn't be happier to get checks from Xian Properties, Ltd. for work remodeling Main St. into an ersatz Tuscan village with shops selling organic, gluten-free dog biscuits. And then they'll sell the farm that's been in the family for generation to someone who will use it for a gov't-subsidized "therapy pet" operation, move further north, and never step foot on Main St. again.

Profits!

 

[LizzieMaine]

The one good thing to all of this is that we're too deteriorating an economy for Starbucks to bother us. We have a local employee-owned coffee roastery/joint that seems to do just fine. I can't stomach coffee myself, least of all that syrupy guck that passes for coffee nowadays, but since they became an employee-owned cooperative, I make a point of going in from time to time and getting a take out order of their french fries just to support the concept.

I intend to stay here, regardless of what happens. I'm just stubborn enough to stay until they carry me out in a bag.

 

[NattyLud]

I'm picturing a hand-crafted, locally-sourced alpaca fleece bag with embroidered fisherman motif...

 

[scottyrocks]

The more I think of it, the more I think if we're going to sell our soul to the tourists and gentrifiers, we might just as well go the whole nine yards and install security checkpoints at all entries to the town. All persons entering will be required to have their credit card swiped, paying a cover charge that would go into the general municipal fund. And then again when they get tired of all the overpriced seafood and make-believe quaintness, they'd have to pay an exit charge to leave. Better yet, just install the checkpoint at the Kittery bridge, and make the whole state a theme park. We've already got "Vacationland" on the license plates, why not go for the gusto?

Would you build a wall, or just post extra troops at the borders?

 

[scottyrocks]

I can't stomach coffee myself, least of all that syrupy guck that passes for coffee nowadays,

Four words: pour-over coffee brewing.