LizzieMaine
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Possibly, if not probably. The USSR's primary interest in those territories was to provide a physical buffer against a resurgent Germany, which would have been decidedly less necessary, one hopes, in a Europe where Hitler became irrelevant or was removed in a coup after 1938. But then again, the Western powers had interfered in the Russian Civil War on the side of the Whites in 1919-20, and there'd be no reason to think that couldn't happen again, especially if a post-Nazi Germany were to align with Britain and France.
It's also possible that much of Europe might have gone Communist on its own -- France had a very powerful Communist party before and after the war, and so had Germany until the Nazis took over. Franco likely would have been beaten back in Spain had the Nazis had to abandon their aid to the Falangists in 1938-39, and the Spanish Republicans leaned pretty far to the left already. Italy very nearly went Red at the polls in 1948 -- and probably would have had the CIA not intervened -- so Stalin might have had his enlarged Sphere of Influence anyway, without firing a shot. Or, "Eurocommunism" could have made Stalin himself less relevant.
On the other hand, it's quite likely that without Hitler to worry about, Stalin would have concentrated far more of his attention on what Japan was doing. The Sons of Heaven were running rampant in China, and that had nothing to do with anything going on in the West, and since Japan is Russia's historic enemy, I can see Stalin far more worried about what was going on in Asia than on anything happening in Eastern Europe.
It's also possible that much of Europe might have gone Communist on its own -- France had a very powerful Communist party before and after the war, and so had Germany until the Nazis took over. Franco likely would have been beaten back in Spain had the Nazis had to abandon their aid to the Falangists in 1938-39, and the Spanish Republicans leaned pretty far to the left already. Italy very nearly went Red at the polls in 1948 -- and probably would have had the CIA not intervened -- so Stalin might have had his enlarged Sphere of Influence anyway, without firing a shot. Or, "Eurocommunism" could have made Stalin himself less relevant.
On the other hand, it's quite likely that without Hitler to worry about, Stalin would have concentrated far more of his attention on what Japan was doing. The Sons of Heaven were running rampant in China, and that had nothing to do with anything going on in the West, and since Japan is Russia's historic enemy, I can see Stalin far more worried about what was going on in Asia than on anything happening in Eastern Europe.