New Goodwear Prices

[Deleted member 16736]

I disagree strongly with this post. In inflation-adjusted terms, the price of a leather jacket hasn't changed .[/QUOTE

Perhaps with regard to the "average" price, but many here are pointing out prices rising (above average) due to demand.

A different way of looking at your scenario:
How many leather jackets on average did a person own 80 years ago in your estimation? How many leather jackets do you yourself own? How many do you think most members here own on average? I'm guessing it's quite a bit more than the guy who was around 80 years ago. In my mind, places like this raise the demand and therefore contribute towards raising the prices.

We represent such a tiny fraction of the overall population that to re-create demand from 80 years ago we each need to own five jackets, at least.

The dollar price of leather jackets is climbing so quickly because the dollar price of tangible goods is rising quickly. Gold has gone up over 6 times since 2001. Oil has tripled. Natural gas... well, that doesn't count, but I hear natural gas in Europe and Asia is a lot higher. It isn't that leather jackets are suddenly more valuable or a few guys on internet message boards are creating a buying frenzy giving producers a lot of pricing power. Rather, it's simply that currencies are collapsing, not against each other but against things of value (like leather jackets and the things that go into making them).

 

[ForestForTheTrees]

While much of what you've pointed out makes sense overall, I don't think it covers the whole story for a business like Goodwear or any business where a master of his/her craft finds their products in high demand. Yes, this place represents a tiny fraction of the overall population. However, here in the states for example, compared to 80 years ago the supply side (manufacturers) of the equation is down as well, not just the demand side. People can (and still do) go to places like Sears (or Montgomery Wards if it were still around) to buy leather jackets. Department stores more than likely still account for a large majority of leather jacket sales. The attraction 80 years ago was that these goods could be ordered from a catalog, so even if you lived in a more rural area and couldn't visit the store, you still had the buying option. Catalogs then provided the outlet that the internet does today. The difference is that people couldn't spend all hours of the day and night discussing such things with one another via a catalog. For a small operation like Goodwear creating very expensive leather jackets (or any number of individual luthiers creating very expensive handmade custom guitars for that matter) a mere fraction of a tiny fraction of the overall population is all they need for the equivalent of a buying frenzy. Increasing cost of materials certainly leads to increased prices, but lengthy wait times due to demand outstripping supply also tend to have an impact as well. Don't forget to factor in the fact that few here would blink an eye at a jacket costing almost four figures if not more and all of a sudden Goodwears prices don't seem quite so out of line to people here as they would compared to the how the overall buying population would feel about such prices. It still comes down to supply and demand, but demand in a true niche market is much more noticeably impacted, for better or worse, by the "tiny fractions".

 

[ForestForTheTrees]

I expect that I'm much like many people who live far away from large metropolitian areas. I find out about cool stuff I want by prowling internet sites like FL, AGF and VLJ. Otherwise, I'd never know I wanted it. Heck. Without the 'net, I'd probably be 57 years old and still be happy with my Avirex A-2, a baseball cap and my old Yamaha guitar.

AF

I got a chuckle out of this because while I'm just a few years behind you, I could literally say the exact same thing - except that I believe the Avirex I owned many years ago was a G-2.

 

[Deleted member 16736]

I don't think demand for luxury goods is any higher today than it was in the past. If you have evidence to the contrary, I'd like to hear it. Like I said, the price of an average leather jacket (say, Aero) is around $1000. In inflation-adjusted terms using the price of gold as a yardstick, that price hasn't changed in many decades. Yes, GW charges more, and maybe they get a little bump up because they're a luxury brand, not a more pedestrian brand, and I'm sure the internet helped spread the word, but I repeat: the real price of a leather jacket is unchanged from the past and no amount of internet buzz can change its value.

If I'm wrong and the real price of leather jackets was somewhat lower in the past, I would say it was because the materials that go into horsehide jackets (namely, horsehide) was more plentiful and therefore less expensive even in real terms. Internet hype has nothing to do with it, in my opinion.

 

[ForestForTheTrees]

Like I said, the price of an average leather jacket (say, Aero) is around $1000.
....
Internet hype has nothing to do with it, in my opinion.

This is the perfect example of what I'm referring to. Online forums don't exactly represent the average person. If you were to poll the general population as to what they thought the price of an average leather jacket would be, I'll bet that the overwhelming majority would not quote a price anywhere near $1000. Add to this that many if not most here own not just one example, but multiples and often it would seem closets full. Again, I'm not saying that such jackets are not worth the cost, simply that what constitutes normal or "average" on online forums is skewed quite a bit from that of the general population. I don't see such behavior as simply hype and I do believe the result has a major impact on truly small niche players.

Clearly our opinions differ. These are simply my observations and I can accept the fact that not everyone is going to agree with them.

 

[Smithy]

FL and VLJ member Andrew posted a quote from John Chapman over at VLJ which I hope he doesn't mind my repeating here:

"With Vickie and Tiffany working with me, I need to make more cash. I have a queue of 150 jackets, which is insanity. That just has to stop. Raising prices should really slow things down."

Which would suggest that he's put the price up because demand has gone through the roof in terms of what he can, and would like, to handle. He must be working like a Trojan.

 

[Atticus Finch]

This is the perfect example of what I'm referring to. Online forums don't exactly represent the average person.

This jacket closet is not unlike that of any average, normal person. Observers need not specualte as to whether the owner suffers from any sort of obsessive disorder.

AF

Post Edit. This is an old photo. The collection is actually larger, now.

 

[Sloan1874]

Terrifying.

 

[kojax]

wow i have 5 a-2 jackets i think i got alot lol

 

[Worf]

Re: The picture above. I won't "quote" to save space but I will say... Good God man!!!! Last I heard you can only wear one at a time!!! LOL. No... I truly can't say anything my leather jacket/coat collection has exploded in less than one year. If finances weren't reigning me in I'd have a room full just like you. Wore the LHB today in the blowing snow...

Worf

 

[thor]

Add to the fact that we can only wear one jacket at a time the fact that its only jacket weather for about 8 months out if the year and that we usually just wear a jacket to and from our place of work or to where ever we are going (ie not indoors) and the long break-in period for FQHH, it makes one wonder if we'd ever get our money's worth for the jackets we own!

 

[Dr H]

Man...Geoff am I relieved you're on a lawyer's wage...that collection would cripple an academic (or at the very least stop him wasting money on trifles like food)... :-D

 

[Dr H]

This jacket closet is not unlike that of any average, normal person. Observers need not specualte as to whether the owner suffers from any sort of obsessive disorder.

Wait a minute...I see what you've done there...
You Americans...that's irony isn't it?! ;-)

 

[Deleted member 16736]

This is the perfect example of what I'm referring to. Online forums don't exactly represent the average person. If you were to poll the general population as to what they thought the price of an average leather jacket would be, I'll bet that the overwhelming majority would not quote a price anywhere near $1000. Add to this that many if not most here own not just one example, but multiples and often it would seem closets full. Again, I'm not saying that such jackets are not worth the cost, simply that what constitutes normal or "average" on online forums is skewed quite a bit from that of the general population. I don't see such behavior as simply hype and I do believe the result has a major impact on truly small niche players.

Clearly our opinions differ. These are simply my observations and I can accept the fact that not everyone is going to agree with them.

And I wouldn't pay more than $20 to see a live sporting event. What's your point? The average person has never even heard of a horsehide jacket. For the umpteenth time, the price of a horsehide jacket is no different than it used to be. Yes, demand is smaller. But guess what? Supply is smaller, too! Supply and demand are in balance and the clearing price of a horsehide leather jacket is still around 1/2 to 2/3 of an ounce of gold. No different. Check the old catalogs. Check the old prices. And convert to the prevailing gold price at the time and you'll see what I am telling you. We are NOT bidding against ourselves to drive up the price. If there was more demand, there'd be more supply and the price wouldn't change. There is set demand (smaller than the past). Demand is being met by supply (also smaller than the past). The price is largely unchanged. John raising his price isn't proof of anything except his jackets are more upscale than he realized and should command a premium. Don't believe me? Okay.

 

[Deleted member 16736]

Atticus' closet looks like the supply room at Edwards Air Force Base.

 

[dr.velociraptor]

the price of a horsehide jacket is no different than it used to be. Yes, demand is smaller... Check the old catalogs. Check the old prices. And convert to the prevailing gold price at the time and you'll see what I am telling you. We are NOT bidding against ourselves to drive up the price.

In the old catalog a horsehide BUCO went for $35.00 in 1950, inflation adjusted that's $350 or so. In no way does inflation account for the near $2000 prices we see today.

We are not and have not been on the gold standard for some time, I'm not sure why we're comparing Hourshide prices in 2013 to the price of gold to begin with.

 

[Deleted member 16736]

Government inflation numbers grossly underreport real inflation. I'm using gold as my yardstick because it's above politics. The value of gold doesn't change and it has a fixed ratio (more or less) to other tangible goods, like a gallon of gas or a horsehide jacket.

In 1950, gold traded for $35 an ounce, or the price of one Buco jacket. Buco was a premium jacket. In gold-adjusted terms, a Buco sold for $1650 in today's dollars, which is about the price of a premium jacket in 2013. I rest my case.

 

[dr.velociraptor]

Government inflation numbers grossly underreport real inflation. I'm using gold as my yardstick because it's above politics. The value of gold doesn't change and it has a fixed ratio (more or less) to other tangible goods, like a gallon of gas or a horsehide jacket.

In 1950, gold traded for $35 an ounce, or the price of one Buco jacket. Buco was a premium jacket. In gold-adjusted terms, a Buco sold for $1650 in today's dollars, which is about the price of a premium jacket in 2013. I rest my case.

You are using gold because in 1950 it was at an all time low because we were moving off the gold standard, today it is at an all-time high because of the "great recession" and it fits your agenda.

Every other method of calculating inflation between 1950 and 2013 has a horsehide jacket from a maker like BUCO worth between $330-$350 in today's money.

 

[Aerojoe]

$1549 -- horsehide
$1449 -- goatskin

At least the line'll get shorter.

Those prices sky rocket the cost of an importation from Europe. You have to pay selling price + shipping + 3-4% import duties + 19-21% VAT. A horsehide jacket could be $2,100 or more. :eusa_doh:

I don't drop that kind of money on a leather jacket as a matter of principle. I want usability, not a jacket to be exposed on a pedestal, somewhere inside my house. I don't see myself wearing out a $2,000 jacket either. That's for preppies

 

[tonypaj]

And I wouldn't pay more than $20 to see a live sporting event. What's your point?

My point is that I pay happily more than $20 for a live sporting event, live rock concert, live any concert, tons of money for golf clubs (my 1st passion), leather jackets (my 2nd), guitars and all the related gear for my son, soon gotta start thinking about a horse or renting one for the daughter, and nothing's got anything to do with gold... (notice how I left out the wife). Anyway, the role that gold plays in the economy has changed so much over the years that to me comparisons such as yours are not so valid. But it should be discussed elsewhere.