Do you think there could be a second Great Depression?

[PrettySquareGal]

America is approaching the Fiscal Cliff...and now this...

A potential strike by thousands of dock workers in Savannah - and at ports stretching from Boston to Houston - threatens to affect the economy as early as this week.

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/morning_call/2012/12/businesses-warn-of-port-shutdown-as.html

Government borrowing will hit the debt ceiling on Monday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in a letter to Congress Wednesday.

As a result, the Treasury Department will soon start using what it calls "extraordinary measures" to prevent government borrowing from exceeding the legal limit.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/26/news/economy/debt-ceiling/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

 

[jamespowers]

America is approaching the Fiscal Cliff...and now this...

A potential strike by thousands of dock workers in Savannah - and at ports stretching from Boston to Houston - threatens to affect the economy as early as this week.

http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/morning_call/2012/12/businesses-warn-of-port-shutdown-as.html

Government borrowing will hit the debt ceiling on Monday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in a letter to Congress Wednesday.

As a result, the Treasury Department will soon start using what it calls "extraordinary measures" to prevent government borrowing from exceeding the legal limit.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/26/news/economy/debt-ceiling/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

So in short yes, the economy will get worse for the next few years----even worse than it has been so far. get ready.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

So in short yes, the economy will get worse for the next few years----even worse than it has been so far. get ready.

How does one get ready? Some people have cut back as far as they can....

 

[jamespowers]

How does one get ready? Some people have cut back as far as they can....

Don't spend anything you don't have to right now. Set triggers for your stocks that will sell if they fall below a certain price to minimize losses. Save what you can as well. Stock up on food too as the price is likely to go higher. You can't eat money. Ammunition might be good too. You never know.

 

[Atticus Finch]

So in short yes, the economy will get worse for the next few years----even worse than it has been so far. get ready.

Most economists agree that people's expectations about the future drive our economy more than any other single factor. We just survived a national election wherein billions was spent in an effort to convince voters that the economy was in terrible shape and was getting worse. In spite of that, every indication is that the economy is steadily improving. Evidently, not many people believe shrill political bluster or some of the opinions on this thread.

AF

 

[jamespowers]

Most economists agree that people's expectations about the future drive our economy more than any other single factor. We just survived a national election wherein billions was spent in an effort to convince voters that the economy was in terrible shape and was getting worse. In spite of that, every indication is that the economy is steadily improving. Evidently, not many people believe shrill political bluster or some of the opinions on this thread.

AF

You just keep thinking that and remain unprepared.

 

[PrettySquareGal]

Most economists agree that people's expectations about the future drive our economy more than any other single factor. We just survived a national election wherein billions was spent in an effort to convince voters that the economy was in terrible shape and was getting worse. In spite of that, every indication is that the economy is steadily improving. Evidently, not many people believe shrill political bluster or some of the opinions on this thread.

AF

Fiscal cliff? Dock strike? Debt ceiling? Hello?

 

[Atticus Finch]

You just keep thinking that and remain unprepared.

So you are saying that beginning now and going into the next few (three? five? ten?) years the economy will become worse than so far. What is "so far"? Worse than 2007 and 2008? Worse than the Great Depression? I'm not arguing. I'm just asking what to prepare for and when should I be prepared.

AF

 

[jamespowers]

So you are saying that beginning now and going into the next few (three? five? ten?) years the economy will become worse than so far. What is "so far"? Worse than 2007 and 2008? Worse than the Great Depression? I'm not arguing. I'm just asking what to prepare for and when should I be prepared.

AF

Prepare just as I said. Depending on how things work out it could be worse than 2008 and 2007. Unemployment will be higher, interest rates will be higher and you basic commodities will cost more for less. This will be worse in some states more than others. It is going to stink here. Where you are not so much.
Figure this will last at least another two years---beginning now.

 

[Atticus Finch]

Prepare just as I said. Depending on how things work out it could be worse than 2008 and 2007. Unemployment will be higher, interest rates will be higher and you basic commodities will cost more for less. This will be worse in some states more than others. It is going to stink here. Where you are not so much.
Figure this will last at least another two years---beginning now.

OK. Thanks.

AF

 

[PrettySquareGal]

The Tax Policy Center says that on average, taxes would go up for every income group, from the poorest taxpayers to the most wealthy:

Americans in the lowest 20 percent of the income scale could pay an average of about $400 more in taxes.
Middle-income households could pay about $2,000 more in taxes, on average.
The top 20 percent of taxpayers could pay about $14,000 more a year in taxes, on average.
The 1 percenters could pay an average of $120,000 more in taxes.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/eco...pens-you-if-we-go-over-fiscal-cliff-1C7753059

 

[PrettySquareGal]

More than 26 million mostly middle-class households for the first time may face the Alternative Minimum Tax, or AMT, which could add about $3,700 on average to tax bills. Congress has thus far failed to approve an inflation “patch” that expired last year and prevents millions of people from having to pay the tax.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs.../05/if-tax-cuts-expire-how-much-will-you-owe/

 

[Atticus Finch]

Prepare just as I said. Depending on how things work out it could be worse than 2008 and 2007. Unemployment will be higher, interest rates will be higher and you basic commodities will cost more for less. This will be worse in some states more than others. It is going to stink here. Where you are not so much.
Figure this will last at least another two years---beginning now.

Sorry, James, I got drafted into a honeydoo house project last night. But I do want to be clear on your opinion so could you please quantify it a bit? You're saying that interest rates will increase? By about how much will the prime increase during the next 36 months? And you feel like the national unemployment rate will increase? Between '07 and today, it peaked several times at about 10%. But you think it will exceed this amount in the next 36 months? Will it go up as high as 12-15%? How about the Dow Jones? In early '09 it had fallen from around 13000 to about 6500. Now its over 13000 again. But you're advising us to put sell triggers on our holdings...so you must think the DJA will crash during the next three years? To what level? Will it break 6500 again? Should I set my triggers at a 10% decrease...or, anticipating the fall, maybe less? Finally, you think the cost of basic commodities is going to increase? The most recent figures show that SACPI increased by a little less than 2% during the last year. It actually decreased again in November, I guess mainly because of falling energy prices. But what’s your opinion about the next 12 months? A 5% increase? More?

As to preparation...thankfully, I'm debt free and I already try not to spend money on anything but guitar strings and bourbon. I dang sure don't need to store more food. Since Thanksgiving, I've stored quite a bit around my waist line. And I guess I'll just have to risk running out of ammunition. During the last three weeks, all of our local gun crazies have bought our Wal Mart completely out of everything from .22 to .300 Winchester Mag!

AF

 

[PrettySquareGal]

If Congress doesn’t avoid ‘dairy cliff,’ milk prices could double

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...908108-505f-11e2-8b49-64675006147f_story.html

 

[this one guy]

Legislators always play a game of chicken when self imposed ceilings and deadlines loom. Then usually they vote extensions, increase limits, enact stop-gap measures, or use accounting tricks to push the problem off to grow more severe for another day.

Kind of like putting more bandaids on a dying patient.

 

[jamespowers]

Legislators always play a game of chicken when self imposed ceilings and deadlines loom. Then usually they vote extensions, increase limits, enact stop-gap measures, or use accounting tricks to push the problem off to grow more severe for another day.

Kind of like putting more bandaids on a dying patient.

And there is the rub. With the country in many ways worse off than even Greece, when the chickens come home to roost in the next few months, we will be in dire straits. Government is incapable of helping no matter who is running it. They just make matters worse by these very stop gap measures. Solving the problem is what we have to do individually.

 

[jamespowers]

Sorry, James, I got drafted into a honeydoo house project last night. But I do want to be clear on your opinion so could you please quantify it a bit? You're saying that interest rates will increase? By about how much will the prime increase during the next 36 months? And you feel like the national unemployment rate will increase? Between '07 and today, it peaked several times at about 10%. But you think it will exceed this amount in the next 36 months? Will it go up as high as 12-15%? How about the Dow Jones? In early '09 it had fallen from around 13000 to about 6500. Now its over 13000 again. But you're advising us to put sell triggers on our holdings...so you must think the DJA will crash during the next three years? To what level? Will it break 6500 again? Should I set my triggers at a 10% decrease...or, anticipating the fall, maybe less? Finally, you think the cost of basic commodities is going to increase? The most recent figures show that SACPI increased by a little less than 2% during the last year. It actually decreased again in November, I guess mainly because of falling energy prices. But what’s your opinion about the next 12 months? A 5% increase? More?

As to preparation...thankfully, I'm debt free and I already try not to spend money on anything but guitar strings and bourbon. I dang sure don't need to store more food. Since Thanksgiving, I've stored quite a bit around my waist line. And I guess I'll just have to risk running out of ammunition. During the last three weeks, all of our local gun crazies have bought our Wal Mart completely out of everything from .22 to .300 Winchester Mag!

AF

Yes.

 

[AmateisGal]

Even if we don't go over the cliff, some things will be more expensive. Groceries - like cereal, for instance - are going to be higher because of the drought.

 

[jamespowers]

Even if we don't go over the cliff, some things will be more expensive. Groceries - like cereal, for instance - are going to be higher because of the drought.

And consequently meat, cheese, etc. as grain is what is fed to a large portion of the meat we eat. Even dog and cat food is effected.
Let us also remember that our current level and measure of the Dow is not the same as it was before all of this got started as many companies that have gone broke, fell below the earnings threshold or sold out have been delisted. If you account for all of that and the fact that the Dow has gone through zero every day in the last year then you would be surprised as to where we truly are. If you remove the Fed support of the market then it would be even worse.:eusa_doh:

 

[John in Covina]

In spite of that, every indication is that the economy is steadily improving.
AF

At an increadibly slow rate.