Models...For Eastern US Tropical Weather Geeks Only

[Atticus Finch]

The season is upon us so I thought I'd share one of my favorite weather sites with y'all. It links to several of the better global weather models...particularly the GFS and GFDL. When the site comes up, click "submit" on one of the models. Again, a very good one is the GFS. Then click on the "Forward" button and watch for a blue circle to form just off the African coast and just above the equator...that would be a tropical low. Today, the circle is 92L, an area of low pressure that will likely form a hurricane by early next week. By the way, the darker the blue, the lower the pressure and the stronger the system. Larger, very dark blue systems are tropical storms and hurricanes.

Again...these are models only. They’re not reality. But they are getting better and better at predicting where storms will go over a three to five day period.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

AF

 

[Nathan Dodge]

While I'm not a hurricane "geek", I am a lifelong South Florida resident, so sites like these are quite useful in my neurotic checking of storms during hurricane season. Thanks for the link.

 

[Boodles]

Mr. Finch, I'm hoping that Irene will take her eye off you and head back out into the open Atlantic. Please keep an eye on that thing and bolt if you need to do so.

 

[Atticus Finch]

Mr. Finch, I'm hoping that Irene will take her eye off you and head back out into the open Atlantic. Please keep an eye on that thing and bolt if you need to do so.

Thanks Boodles. It is going to be an interesting weekend here in Coastal North Carolina. The models seem to be trending eastward, so I'm more concerned about my house in Beaufort than the one in New Bern. The good news is the Beaufort house has been there since 1932, so its seen a bunch of hurricanes.

If the storm follows the 11:00 NHC track, the center of Irene will pass almost directly over Hatteras Island. We'll get tropical storm force winds in New Bern, but the real damage will be borne by my fellow Downeasters in Beaufort, Harkers Island, Sea Level and points further east.

It has been a long time since a storm of this strength made land fall in Eastern NC., Hazel may have been the last and that was in 1954. Since then, there has been much construction along our coast that probably should have never been allowed. If Irene swings even slightly left of the predicted track, I think many coastal new comers are going to learn more about hurricanes than they ever wanted to know.

AF

 

[kamikat]

It looks like the track is changing every 12hours. Current predictions have landfall in New Jersey.

 

[Corky]

Try this one:

http://crisislanding.appspot.com/